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Showing results for tags 'cantillon effects'.
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Hey there! I was just inspired to summarize the Austrian Business Cycle Theory as succinctly as possible for those in the community who may not be familiar, and who just want the essence: that which is really important about how the theory functions in empirical reality (but I repeat myself). Central Banks are a modern phenomena which reign control over the particular amount of money in the economy. At any given point in time, there is an amount of money which correlates to the distribution of goods in society, and this is reflected by prices. In a free market, the amount of money fluctuates as more or less of it enters the market over time according to the demand for money. Central Banks turn the typical intuition of how the money supply would fluctuate over time on its head. With a central bank, money can be printed on demand of political swindlers, and the money supply can be increased exponentially if so chosen by these pernicious scum. When money is printed by a politician, it is then handed out to a private actor. This is where the essence begins. The private actor who first is able to spend the newly created money accrues a special benefit. Since his money was not earned from production for consumers, but was gained by political fiat, it is essentially hidden from the economy. When it enters, it has the effect of being as fresh and powerful as any other money which was the result of valuable, market demanded production. It disguises itself to be just the same, but it is not, since no productive act was behind its creation. When it is first spent, it will accrue productive resources from others who are in vain of its disguise. If there is a lot of newly printed money to be spent, it will quickly chase and gather new resources until it is accounted for by everyone else. Only after much time will it be completely factored into the market prices, to reflect the increase in the money supply which had not been demanded, and which could not have been anticipated by other market actors. Political bandits have become masters of counterfeit, and so they know how to maximize their gains. They bring new money to bear into the market gradually over time, and by doing so they create economic bubbles. This is the last bit of the essence, so stay along with me for this. Since other economic actors who are not politically connected lose out by inflation as more and more money is printed over time, they are given incentive, if not coerced to use their money to chase whichever industry is getting the benefit of new, gradual monopolization of resources by the use of disguised money. Looking to limit their losses and gamble on gains, investors who are not politically connected invest, and they invest, and they invest into the disguised money monopoly industry. At some point there must be a relative slowing of the increase in money supply. It cannot go on forever, lest catastrophic inflation shows its face. This is when the disguised money disrobes itself to show its bloated body. What was thought to be economic production is now seen as a political shindig, and what prices were thought to be a reflection of real consumer demands are now seen as completely fraudulent. A picture is painted across the skyline, signaling to everyone the massive and horrifying scale of what was lost. Capital thought to be suckling at the teat of future wealth is now seen shattered and dispersed across the landscape in irrecoverable ways. Savings for years and years has dispersed into thin air it seems, and living standards which were anticipate to be much glorious are now faint and gloomy. The bust is the wake of what is lost. It is the market opening its eyes to what had been disguised to it, and its attempt to pick up the pieces and begin all over again, with full knowledge that some of what was lost will never be restored. As you can see, counterfeit is not just a criminal affair. It is the literal enslaving of millions of people, clueless to the fact that their lives have been wasted profiteering for politicians. Millions of people carrying on their backs a few men, to see their lives wasted and their accumulations ruined when the promises they have been told are revealed years later. That was fun, but I hope it was also clear. Let me know if there is anything I can add to complete the picture of what a boom/bust cycle really is. Or if I got it all wrong, please let me know that too!