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Breaking news - Bitcoin Is Tanking!!


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This is a fun thread to read back on. Bitcoin hit 50 at the bottom of the last crash. This most recnet crash it "hit bottom" around 450. Currently we are still going up with bitcion around 830.

 

I look forward to this thread necro-bumping in a few months to a few years to see what the price is. Just thought I would throw in a couple prices for our progeny's sake. :D

 

Not to mention the potential for altcoins to enter the mix. Maybe I won't have bitcoin anymore and have 3 other cryptocurrencies. It shall be entertaining.

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If I had bought BTC from 2009 on instead of some gold coin as I did back then ... I'd be on my own ancap island in the pacific by now

Oh the things I bought with bitcoin / or wasted bitcoin on...

 

I would have quite a bit of money if I didn't  get rid of some of my coin.

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Bitcoin broke 1,000 just now. This means nothing in reality, but in a psychologically driven market, it could send things way higher as a breakout or way lower as it becomes a resistance point.

 

For myself, I am starting to think that bitcoin might be getting ahead of itself in the short run and might be due for a correction of a couple hundred. However, it is nearly impossible to predict these things, but that is just my feeling.

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Maybe this question has already been answered elsewhere, but what's to stop one or more of the central banks from buying up huge numbers of bitcoins, causing a major price spike, then doing a major selloff, causing a crash and undermining confidence?  After all, if I was a senior figure within an organization that could create fiat money, and I wanted to destroy any potential challengers while they were still in the crib...

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Maybe this question has already been answered elsewhere, but what's to stop one or more of the central banks from buying up huge numbers of bitcoins, causing a major price spike, then doing a major selloff, causing a crash and undermining confidence?  After all, if I was a senior figure within an organization that could create fiat money, and I wanted to destroy any potential challengers while they were still in the crib...

It would not do anything in the long run. Bitcoin hype would probably ride the wave up and power right through the sell off in a frenzy. It could easily backfire and Bitcoin is stable enough to survive something like that the the gains would be small.

 

That could have easily collapsed the thing back in the day- or at least set it back for a few years. However, the longer it goes the more popular and stable it gets (and the more they want to derail it) the harder it is to do so.

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Maybe this question has already been answered elsewhere, but what's to stop one or more of the central banks from buying up huge numbers of bitcoins, causing a major price spike, then doing a major selloff, causing a crash and undermining confidence?  After all, if I was a senior figure within an organization that could create fiat money, and I wanted to destroy any potential challengers while they were still in the crib...

 

 

It would not do anything in the long run. Bitcoin hype would probably ride the wave up and power right through the sell off in a frenzy. It could easily backfire and Bitcoin is stable enough to survive something like that the the gains would be small.

 

That could have easily collapsed the thing back in the day- or at least set it back for a few years. However, the longer it goes the more popular and stable it gets (and the more they want to derail it) the harder it is to do so.

 

I too have heard this type of question before. If that is the problem, I don't see why they wouldn't be able to do so with other things as well, gold and silver for example!? 

I suppose markets are still free enough and market forces don't allow for cornering of the market.

 

P.S. On the count of retraction, they say "watching gold parity."

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Its being hinted at that the same bitcoin numbers (prime numbers) could be the basis for other bitcoinalikes - great!!! erm .... wheres the limitation of supply?

 

We should use labour-hour as the only currency as it seems its all currency has ever been used to extract. I know, in theory it really smoothes the economic supply lines between a guy with coconuts wanting cheese burgers from a guy with bananas, but since the lydians standardised currency, its never been far from where people are having their sweat collected into someone elses vat.

 

Let currency run laissez faire and a currency will arise all on its ownsome. Now who wants coconuts for some tobacco?

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an (in my opinion) interesting interview I just found, where an IBM architect talks about bitcoin as an asset-register. What do you make of that?

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gERNbqUNMm4

I very much think that in the future, bitcoin will just be a protocol (like TCP/IP) by which systems upon systems will be built upon.

 

I think that this guy is reinforcing this idea in his own way.

 

In the future, only tech-nerds will know what bitcoin is, but everyone will use it in the same way that tech nerds know what TCP/IP is, but everyone uses it.

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an (in my opinion) interesting interview I just found, where an IBM architect talks about bitcoin as an asset-register. What do you make of that?

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gERNbqUNMm4

 

 

I very much think that in the future, bitcoin will just be a protocol (like TCP/IP) by which systems upon systems will be built upon.

 

I think that this guy is reinforcing this idea in his own way.

 

In the future, only tech-nerds will know what bitcoin is, but everyone will use it in the same way that tech nerds know what TCP/IP is, but everyone uses it.

 

If I understand it correctly, it is practically the same thing Stephan Kinsella said: http://youtu.be/Rf0VUuJNpvA?t=7m12s

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Its being hinted at that the same bitcoin numbers (prime numbers) could be the basis for other bitcoinalikes - great!!! erm .... wheres the limitation of supply?We should use labour-hour as the only currency as it seems its all currency has ever been used to extract. I know, in theory it really smoothes the economic supply lines between a guy with coconuts wanting cheese burgers from a guy with bananas, but since the lydians standardised currency, its never been far from where people are having their sweat collected into someone elses vat.Let currency run laissez faire and a currency will arise all on its ownsome. Now who wants coconuts for some tobacco?

but the labor theory of value is false.

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http://cryptolife.net/psa-dont-sell-btc-right-now/

 

PSA: Don’t sell Bitcoin right now
Hazard December 1, 2013 Uncategorized  1 Comment
Let’s set the stage… Bitcointalk is being DDOS’d, and has been down since this morning. Gox is experiencing 15-20 min lag on the trade engine. A hoax about all bitcoin private keys being leaked is making the rounds (and apparently, fooling some of the newbies). Price is at $850 on gox as I’m writing this.
 
All signs point to serious market manipulation by someone looking to pick up bitcoin on the cheap. Selling now would be foolish. Turn your computer off, and go do something else. Everything will be fine.
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http://cryptolife.net/psa-dont-sell-btc-right-now/ PSA: Don’t sell Bitcoin right nowHazard December 1, 2013 Uncategorized  1 CommentLet’s set the stage… Bitcointalk is being DDOS’d, and has been down since this morning. Gox is experiencing 15-20 min lag on the trade engine. A hoax about all bitcoin private keys being leaked is making the rounds (and apparently, fooling some of the newbies). Price is at $850 on gox as I’m writing this. All signs point to serious market manipulation by someone looking to pick up bitcoin on the cheap. Selling now would be foolish. Turn your computer off, and go do something else. Everything will be fine.

You just made me change my mind.. thanks!
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But at the same time China made it clear that individuals can freely transact with Bitcoin. I saw this as an overall-positive development.

 

It did, but I don't know that it is positive development. Markets didn't react well to this.

One more warning, technical analysis warns that hourly sma-200, didn't surviv (in all exchanges!). Additionally, hourly sma-50 crossed it down.  "sma-200 was almost always unbeatable during bubbles and provided support for bubble EW count."

 

Many bad news for move upwards.

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SMA is simple moving average. 50 day and 200 day are referenced.

 

If something is a bubble in the short term (which is not proven for bitcoin) then you would look toward these moving averages to determine when the bubble would burst and a decrease would ensue.

 

Short-term speculators or long term investors looking for a good entry point may use this information to forecast their trading decisions.

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It means that this indicator is indicating that it will drop soon. Which bitcoin has dropped to 877 as I am typing this.

 

If you were a day trader, you would sell and buy back.

 

As a long-term investor, I will try to find a bottom and increase my position with slightly cheaper coins.

 

It means that the short term mania is ended and we will see what higher price bitcoin plans to settle at for a bit. Though, of course, anything could happen.

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Wesley thank you for explaining nicely it and I am sorry guys for I was unable to respond. 

And Robin, I am by no means an expert but it looks like it was right this time. 

I see stops mentioned at around 700 and even 400, BitStamp prices. Even bear markets are mentioned. We "were supposed to" have one more big move up, but... 

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Moving average crossovers are popular trading strategies. Basically, you have a short-term trendline which is more responsive to short-term price changes and a long-term trendline which is less responsive to short-term price changes. When the short-term trend crosses above the long-term trend, traders buy in. When the short-term trend crosses below the long-term trend, traders sell and/or short. 

 

Many moving average crossovers have now been reached, for example the hourly, 2 hour, and 6 hour 10/21 EMA have all crossed. The 12 and 24 hour trends have not yet crossed. The shorter the timeframe, the more responsive the trendlines are to short-term trends. There may be many traders making decisions based on many different variants of these, but in general they will all serve to amplify trend reversals. For example, once a particular crossover is hit, everyone trading on that strategy will begin to sell and lower prices further. If this downturn continues, people following the slower indicators like 12 and 24 hour will also begin to sell. It becomes a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Of course, other traders may be using different strategies which can counteract this. 

 

If this downtrend persists, I suspect we'll be seeing a lot of self-satisfied crowing in the media in the coming days, but I would take it with a grain of salt. The 'market price' is determined from exchanges where people are primarily trying to make a profit by trading. After a big sell-off, most of these people will just be waiting to put their USD back into BTC on the next uptrend. It doesn't necessarily mean that bitcoin has somehow 'failed.'

 

I would also emphasize that these strategies are fundamentally reactive and not predictive. For example, news about Chinese banks may trigger a sell-off among people that aren't using technical analysis, but the people using these crossover strategies don't particularly care why the trends reverse. They just watch for it to happen and trade accordingly. 

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As an example, here is a chart of a 10/21 exponential moving average considering 6-hour timeframes.

 

 

Posted Image

 

You can see a crossover occurred around 1050-1100 (had I been more attentive, I would have sold there). 

 

 

Update: It seems like this is the spark that started the firesale:

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-06/bitcoin-slammed-baidu-suspends-payments-due-fluctuations

 

Between this news and the accelerating downtrend, it looks like we're in for a big adjustment.

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