Will the video game market collapse soon?

[MysterionMuffles]

I've been having this idea lately that the video game market will collapse during the next-generation phase. I remember back in the 80's and the 8-bit era, it was a pretty lukewarm market, but then the whole thing sckyrocketed when Nintendo and Sega came into the scene to kinda crush Atari with their better graphics and overall games. The 90's was what I considered the golden age as the companies began pushing the technology further. The graphics were becoming more crisp from 16-bit to 3D 64-bit, the music was getting closer to being actual music than just bleep noises and whatnot.

But let's fast forward to today because video games is one of the biggest industries around due to 3 decades of advancements. Now games look almost life like, contain real instrumentation, and of course the programming has become much more sophisticated than the days of yesteryear. But how far could that possibly go with the next generation of Playstation 4 and Xbox 720? How much more life like will they get and how will the quality of the actual gameplay experience be affected? Because it seems to me that the better the graphics, the simpler the games are. Nowadays, games are just too damn easy to beat because most developers focus on flashiness and gimmicks to assault your senses with the best graphics and sound effects possible.

That's not to say that there are no good challenging games out there, but they seem to be far and between from the rehashings of say...Call of Doodoo. D'ah I mean Call of Duty. It's a yearly release game with the most minor changes from the previous installments, but it so happens to sell more than anything original coming out. Like let's look at the new Tomb Raider reboot which Square-Enix expected to have sold 7 million copies in the month of its release. They only got 5 million which make them doubt the fruits of their labour was not worth it and unsure if they should proceed with a sequel. (I personally think it was worth it, watching the making of it, they seemed to have a lot of passion into it and it turned out pretty awesome)

Since it's a customer driven market, (what market isn't?) gamers are telling companies that they are more than happy with rehashing titles yearly and they'll be more likely to buy them as opposed to any original content. And let's not even mention the Downloadable Content you can purchase to add onto the games you already have. Say you want to extend your gameplay, add a new character to the game, and anything else that would've easily been unlockable in games in the 90's--all come at a cost so that you have to spend a little more than the original price of $70 just to get more out of the game. Sometimes games are so overridden with DLC that it costs you DOUBLE the game's value to get it all, and more often than not, that content wasn't all that worth it. DLC of course is the only way to continuously get paid because when people rent games, or they sell them in, the companies don't profit from used game sales or from rentals, but anyways let's not even get too deep into that ...

My prediction is that shallow gamers are going to drive the market in the next-gen phase, so there'll be a huge decline in quality games that aren't just 10 hour movies with a little bit of gameplay thrown in. Or shallow gamers that will just keep supporting the military industrial complex with Call of Doo rehashes year after year and barely challenge the developers to create anything new and refreshing--and the video game industry will meet its inevitable end as they are replaced by the more casual and easier to pick up games you can download onto your iDevices.

[Steinhauser]

The video game market is fine. There will always be a demand for good and challenging games. Video games are super mainstream now, which means there will be a lot more Modern Warfares and Angry Birds out there than half decent games. But compared to the past, the technology available to small developers is cheap and sophisticated, and the internet allows for free worldwide distribution. Taking into account the sheer volume of games put out in a year, overall we probably see more good games per year than we did in the 90s, just hidden among the trash.

 

EDIT: That said, I don't have good hopes for "gen whatever" with the new consoles coming out.

[Arius]

I dunno, Bioshock was freakin' awesome.  Though, the story was much more interesting than the game play.  I dislike shooting fake people, but that narrative was so well-developed.  I still Minecraft from time-to-time.

Since it's a customer driven market, (what market isn't?)

Licensure or any other monopoly.

Say you want to extend your gameplay, add a new character to the game, and anything else that would've easily been unlockable in games in the 90's--all come at a cost so that you have to spend a little more than the original price of $70 just to get more out of the game.

Why pay when it's available for free?

But how far could that possibly go with the next generation of Playstation 4 and Xbox 720?

Problem is, the best next-gen console is already obsolete (and they haven't even hit the market yet).  What I find funny is Microsoft and Sony's solution to that problem.  Both companies are trying to make their next console into an all-in-one media/gaming machine....with the associated price tag.

Of course, that's been tried before, but no one studies the history of their own industry.  A little company named Philips released a $700 gaming console once.  In partnership with Nintendo, no less.  It could play movies, CDs, karaoke, and games...It was called "CD-i", and it was one of the worst commercial failures in console history.  Lesson: The customer doesn't want $700 worth of technology, in one machine, if $500 worth is obsolete when it comes out of the box...  Electronics are best sold as interchangeable, modular assemblies.  Sales on any $700 gaming machine will slump.  It is inevitable.  Especially if the customer can get an iPad for $500.  CD-i was only competing with the SNES and Genesis.

Like let's look at the new Tomb Raider reboot which Square-Enix expected to have sold 7 million copies in the month of its release. They only got 5 million which make them doubt the fruits of their labour was not worth it and unsure if they should proceed with a sequel

There's your problem.  You're looking to the large companies to produce something good.  All the best games ('sept Bioshock) are made by independent development studios (and rarely released through Steam).  You should checkout all the projects on Kickstarter or one of the other crowdfunding sites before you declare the industry devoid of worthwhile products.  I think you're just shopping in the wrong place.

[MysterionMuffles]

DLC is not free. I'm saying stuff that you have to pay for now were things that used to be free from simply playing the game and unlocking them.

Hm I did not even take in account the PC industry. Is that chart seriously accurate? Jeez! Guess it makes sense since computers are modifiable through software and installments etc...I dont know too much about computer gaming, my computer is only good for web surfing and writing documents lol.

Hm..maybe Gamestop IS the wrong place to shop? I know there are some independant games released on the Xboxlive Market, but please, elaborate more about independant games so I get a clearer picture.

[Wesley]

I agree with a lot of what you did say, so I will not disparage that.

 

However, I would like to point out the counter-current. As the economy/ country gets increasingly more problematic and college grads "fail to lauch" into non-existent jobs and there is increased medication for depression and anxiety, I think it is possible the market will continue as a form of escapism from/ avoidance of the world.

 

The video game market may just be displaying how much we want to live in dellusion. Whether there is a shift from console to PC and PC to iPad is rather immaterial to my point, and there may be a shift like this that will hurt part of the gaming industry. We shall see.

[Arius]

In most cases, popular games' DLC is available from a torrentable source...on the PC that is.  I don't think the torrent/Xbox 360-DLC gap has been bridged yet, but I haven't looked recently.  The last cool indy game I played was called Antichamber.  I usually learn about less-well-advertised games through Reddit (not an Earth-shaking answer, I know).  I think you've boxed yourself-in by owning a console.  I'd recommend holding-off on the next Xbox or Playstation.  Computers can be built quite cheaply.

Or....you could mod your Xbox....I just checked, you can get DLC for popular games on the 360 from a torrentable source.  Perhaps you should consider investing in a modding kit.  That won't solve the problem of game availability, but it will save you on all that DLC.

PC's are world's ahead of consoles.  You might be surprised how powerful of a computer you can put together for very little money.  Consider the Rasberry Pi.  It's only $35...a little more with the required accessories (but really quite inexpensive overall).  You could, if you were so inclined, run a dedicated Xbox (not the 360) dashboard on a Raspberry Pi..or an SNES, Genesis, PS2, Nes, Atari..etc.

Even if you wanted something more mainstream in a PC, there are a number of inexpensive options...Assuming you have the knowledge to assemble a computer.  If you don't, it's a lot of fun to learn.

That diagram is actually a little old (I couldn't find the one from this year).  The gap between console and PC is significantly wider now, and isn't going to narrow anytime soon.

[MysterionMuffles]

 

I agree with a lot of what you did say, so I will not disparage that.

 

However, I would like to point out the counter-current. As the economy/ country gets increasingly more problematic and college grads "fail to lauch" into non-existent jobs and there is increased medication for depression and anxiety, I think it is possible the market will continue as a form of escapism from/ avoidance of the world.

 

The video game market may just be displaying how much we want to live in dellusion. Whether there is a shift from console to PC and PC to iPad is rather immaterial to my point, and there may be a shift like this that will hurt part of the gaming industry. We shall see.

 

wow that is an excellent point. I didn't even take into consideration how immense the escapism is with them.

[Guest darkskyabove]

One of the issues I see is the cost/benefit analysis of content creation. A quick review of history might be in order.

Prior to 1994 video games were exclusively proprietary content. Yeah, the whole IP issue. Then a free market miracle occurred. Some guy (trying to be neutral, as I'm related to him) published a deconstruction of the data file for the game DOOM: The Unofficial DOOM Specs version 1.666 http://www.gamers.org/dEngine/doom/spec/uds.1666.txt.

This resulted in some programmers (I think the first was Raphael Quintet) writing apps to allow editing of the game files; in essence, you could create your own, entirely new, DOOM levels.

John Carmack, the owner, and at the time sole proprietor, of id software (that's not a typo, their name is lowercase) could have sought IP protection to shut it down; instead he made a decision that Stephen Kinsella could incorporate into an argument from effect against IP: go ahead and make all the levels you want, just make them so the freeware version can't play them.

Fast-forward and you'll see that this idea became the new standard. Most all games that lend themselves to modification ship with their own editor built in. In fact, the most advanced (debatable, but I'm going with it) game design engine is the Unreal Engine. I haven't checked the stats, but I would estimate over a thousand games have been built using this engine. Unreal has reasonable terms for its use. Downloading the UDK (Unreal Development Kit http://www.unrealengine.com/udk/) is free, and any non-profit use is also free.

What does this have to do with the quality of games I want to play?

Developers have accommodated themselves to the reality of user-generated content. Why invest enormous amounts of time and effort (money) into creating some ultra-extravagant-state-of-the-art game when end-users will modify the original concept to keep the genre alive? If the game isn't worth modifying, then they extract as much profit as possible before closure.

What we have experienced is enormous growth in the video game industry. I believe some years ago it surpassed motion pictures in gross revenue. Is a contraction due? Add to that the consumer-driven model where people buy pretty much anything and it becomes apparent why crap keeps selling.

On the other hand, there exist a few games worth notice. I will leave that to individual research, as I do not consider my opinion on games to be universal.

Back to DOOM. It would be hard to refute that the most anticipated game is DOOM 4. Why? My personal reasons aside, I think a case can be made for loyalty due to expand-ability. No other game in history has the sheer volume of user-created content. This is a way of making a game immortal. (Are you taking notes, IP guys?)

 

[RestoringGuy]

 

The gap between console and PC is significantly wider now, and isn't going to narrow anytime soon.

 

I also think PC is the way to go.  But I have become disturbed by Windows 8 and the distros of Linux that have built in app stores and so plainly aim to become gatekeeper of what you are allowed to do.  There are plenty of free games, but what happens when UEFI hardware will eventually require Windows Eight-ish or a version of Linux that is Holy.  It does not seem like overreaction to expect this, given that Apple has iOS following a totally central-Statist model and people just buy it.  The open source people claim to fight this, but they still make their stuff amicable to PC-disabling technology.  Their stuff should just refuse to run if a central-repository-based app store is loaded anywhere on the machine.

[Guest darkskyabove]

 

But I have become disturbed by Windows 8 and the distros of Linux that have built in app stores and so plainly aim to become gatekeeper of what you are allowed to do. 

 

Windows are an easy target. (1/2 pun) One of my favorite current quotes comes from the signature of a Fedora Forum user: "In a world without fences and walls, who needs Gates and Windows." Targeting Linux is like shooting mosquitoes. There are just too many of them. At super-geek level we have Linux From Scratch (http://www.linuxfromscratch.org/), all the way up the user-friendly scale to an almost WinDoze-clone: Ubuntu. I use Fedora, which is dedicated to the concept of free; their software repository is limited due to their principles about totally free software. Doesn't mean I can't install whatever I want. It just isn't always available through their repo.

 

There are plenty of free games, but what happens when UEFI hardware will eventually require Windows Eight-ish or a version of Linux that is Holy.

 

First, there are plenty of free games, but you get what you pay for. Nowadays, there are some free versions of multiplayer clients for online gaming, but that is still fairly limited.

The UEFI (Secure Boot) issue is a potential problem. MicroChump has decided to try and convince hardware manufacturers to play by WinDon't's rules. There are workarounds and the field of hacking firmware is poised to give MicroMonkey a fat banana for all its trouble. Be aware, unless you are trying to build some "futuristic" platform, UEFI is not a necessary investment.

Game on.

[UndeadRufus]

Because it seems to me that the better the graphics, the simpler the games are. Nowadays, games are just too damn easy to beat because most developers focus on flashiness and gimmicks to assault your senses with the best graphics and sound effects possible.

That's not to say that there are no good challenging games out there, but they seem to be far and between from the rehashings of say...Call of Doodoo. D'ah I mean Call of Duty. It's a yearly release game with the most minor changes from the previous installments, but it so happens to sell more than anything original coming out. Like let's look at the new Tomb Raider reboot which Square-Enix expected to have sold 7 million copies in the month of its release. They only got 5 million which make them doubt the fruits of their labour was not worth it and unsure if they should proceed with a sequel. (I personally think it was worth it, watching the making of it, they seemed to have a lot of passion into it and it turned out pretty awesome)

This is a sign of change, because the industry is growing. The more people playing video games, the more "mainstream" the industry becomes. So you can expect a higher percentage of games to cater to so-called lowest common denominators. While I don't like that, it isn't necessarily a bad thing or a sign of impending market failure. With the advent of Kickstarter and widespread indie development per se, the spirit of that golden age you mentioned is, I think, still alive and well. Some of the most fun I've had in years has been just recently with the old-school dungeon crawler Legend of Grimrock. It will never be a Call of Duty, obviously, but the market for less flash and more substance isn't going anywhere, particularly on PC.

I agree with your general assessment of things -- I'm highly skeptical of the upcoming console generation and deplore the nickel-and-dime DLC business model -- but I'm optimistic (greater economic concerns notwithstanding) about the game industry in general. As someone else mentioned, the tools for producing quality content are very accessible nowadays.

[RestoringGuy]

The UEFI (Secure Boot) issue is a potential problem. MicroChump has decided to try and convince hardware manufacturers to play by WinDon't's rules. There are workarounds and the field of hacking firmware is poised to give MicroMonkey a fat banana for all its trouble. Be aware, unless you are trying to build some "futuristic" platform, UEFI is not a necessary investment.

I think UEFI and similar jailing tech poses larger threat than acknowledged.  Windows/Apple only throw us a small bone to do what we want until they no longer have to.  40 trillion distros of Linux do not help if no future hardware will run it.  GPS cell phone chip was mandated, just as UEFI can easily be state mandated.  What makes that politically feasible is the programmers (including free software proponents) write things that obediently run on UEFI capable hardware.  We build our own guillotine for the state, thinking no harm is done by building it.

[Connor]

There will always be suckers like me who will buy the NHL EA sports franchise every year.

[MysterionMuffles]

What do you guys think we should do, as cosumers, to drive the market to a better direction? Boycott high end game companies unless they really care about their customers? Focus more on the independant games being released? 'Cause man, I really thought THQ had the best business model with their UFC franchise. After each game, they would create online surveys and forms where people can give feedback on their games. They were even prompted to share what they think could improve the next year's release of UFC. THQ actually listened, and the games did get better every year, exponentionally at that! But it's just too bad that only 3 UFC games were made before THQ got bankrupt due to a lack of sales, which I find astonishing. Was this a bad business plan, or was it just not executed well enough to consumer expectations that caused it to fail? 

Now UFC has signed a deal with EA Sports, even though Dana White had explicitly said that they're assholes, and dogged on him for the idea of making a UFC game, claiming that UFC "is not a real sport." And remembering the awkward ass controls of EA MMA, I'm kinda nervous about the UFC game would turn out if they don't at least take the great mechanics THQ already instilled.

[MrCapitalism]

Buy they games you want to play, and don't buy the games you don't want to play. It's a market, and it's responsive to consumers.

Don't waste your time trying to influence these companies... that's politics. Your judgement is only needed for the results, not the process. Let them worry about how to give you what you want.

I bought Call of Duty 4 (which was amazing IMO), and haven't bought another COD game since. The exception was MW3 (which was terrible) and I probably won't buy a game from that series ever again. At least until some reviewers I respect report that there have been some significant improvements.

I look at it like Hollywood. There are big budget summer releases which look amazing and really don't have a decent plot. If you want a good story, you're gonna have to seek out the smaller budged movies which are aimed at that segment of consumers. That might not neccessarily be "indie," but if you really looking for edgy content, that's where you're going to find it. Likewise, you're going to have to do the same thing with games.

[RestoringGuy]

I wish it was as simple as buy or don't buy and there was full disclosure.  I wouldn't worry if that were the case.  However with OS locking, they can now hold your system hostage.  A game bought on download can be disabled at will by the vendor and brick the machine if their rules for continued use are not followed.  Game designers must sell through a central approver who is increasingly able to brick the machines if our paid-for software is used in a way they don't like.  Government can easily pull the strings.

[fingolfin]

The VG market is in the same situation as every other service sector business: laying people off, cutting back costs/products, some high-level mergers, filing for bankruptcy, crowd-sourcing if possible. Generally diminishing growth, focusing on fewer and more high-profile products, looking to novel, niche or foreign markets, etc etc.

Not even the great coffee shops can escape this fate. When the service sector, globally, reaches zero growth, that's when the proverbial poop hits the fan. Meanwhile, more and more people join the new and improved unemployment "sector", which is growing like crazy, and have some more time to play video games.

[MysterionMuffles]

here's  a review on the Xbox One that I found pretty informative. Does the PS4 pose any similar problems or is it going to knock Microsoft out of the market?

[DaveDoggOwns]

I grew up from that whole Sega Genesis period all the way to the Xbox first generation era. I'VE SEEN IT ALL. I've seen the best platformers, the best RPG's, the best shooters, the best arcade games, the best fighting games, etc, etc, etc, and absolutely nothing impresses me anymore.  i haven't bought a new console since the Gamecube. IMO that was the last good console.

[MysterionMuffles]

Yeah I'm with you on that one. I was loyal to Nintendo up til N64 but wanted to play Final Fantasy and got a PS1 then 2, and finally I've got Xbox360 the biggest time waster I think I ever had. It's been with me through unemployment, school and an employment all separately in the past 5 years or so. And seriously I am not easily impressed anymore either. Maybe I've seen it all already or today's games just ain't trying anymore. I only play Assassin's Creed III multiplayer now since its a one of a kind game, everything else is just so easily categorized and homogenized. I think I'll pass on next gen unless there happens to be a Soul Calibur VI. Otherwise these interactive movies can be played by the rest of the over stimulated populace.

 

[TheRobin]

I started with a NES and currently own a PS3. And I don't regret getting the thing either, I enjoyed some really good games (both big company produced and indie ones) on that thing.But currently I'm really in love with PC classics (made re-available for win7+ systems) and indies, some of which have some of the most interesting gameplay mechanics and overall design. (And are produced sometimes by as few as 2 or three people).If you're really fed up with new games, have a look at games like "FTL:Faster than light" or "Reus" or "Primordia". All really great PC games for around 10$.Btw I find it intersting that no one mentioned the rise of eSports over the last 2 years, as there seems to be more and more stuff going on in that market (though as far as I can tell, mostly PC and RTS-strategy-game related)

[tasmlab]

I think the video game market is probably like any other media (movies, books, music, etc.)   Most of what comes out is crap and you have to search for the small portion that is really well done.  Like hollywood and pop music, they keep churning out "Captain America" which is big on explosions and slick images and isn't really that interesting.

I don't know how this fares for the market in general.

My mother tries to buy my family games without putting in the hours of research I usually do.  A game is too long to pick out something lousy!  It's like you get triple punished: you lost your money, you lose your time, and you don't get the fun you wanted. 

Me, my five-year old boy and seven-year-old girl play an hour of Legend of Zelda (currently Skyward Sword) every night and just feast on it.  It's great fun.

[nathanm]

I probably don't play that many games, but the ones I do have consistently made me think that the video game market is pretty darn awesome.  For me they have replaced movies for the most part.  I remember thinking that Lorne Lanning wanting to move from games to movies was a horrible idea.  Half-Life, Skyrim, Stranger's Wrath, Borderlands, Bioshock…these are all proper adventures I found far more compelling than any static, always the same movie.  (I haven't played Halo or that other space one with the blue chick and the ending which made people go apeshit, can't remember the title; but those sound like they should go in there too)  Granted, the more linear games are also always the same, but not quite as much as a movie.  Old school games were more about basic object interaction, but these days there are stories and characters you can actually care about.  More processing power and storage advances is just going to push these types of things into the stratosphere I think.  Also, many of the retirement-age old folks in my family are playing video games now, something which was unheard of not very long ago.  I personally can't imagine the market going anywhere but up.

I also think games are a phenomenal bargain.

2-Hours of LOTR in the theater: $10 ($5 per hour of amusement)

1000 Hours of Skyrim: $60 (6 cents per hour of amusement)

If that's not enough you have the games which have modding communities which is like a massive free smorgasboard.  It blows my mind what people are willing to do for free.  I guess free markets are destined to drive all costs to zero, right?

[J-William]

 

I also think games are a phenomenal bargain.

2-Hours of LOTR in the theater: $10 ($5 per hour of amusement)

1000 Hours of Skyrim: $60 (6 cents per hour of amusement)

 

Just think, with Steam you get it for half price.

Terraria was a great deal, and I'm not finished with it yet.

80 hours in Terraria: $1.25 (1.5 cents per hour of amusement)

[tasmlab]

There was a gaming trend a few years ago with Fable and Knights of the Old Republic where your character was given moral choices and that would shape the outcome of the game and whether your character became good or evil.  In the later, it would determine whether you became Jedi or Sith. Kind of a neat concept.

(I tried to play KOTOR but found it tedious, despite it being universally highly rated and investing no less than 20 hours in it)

Besides the cost-per-amusement-hour differential, the games have some wild benefits over movies, particularly playing them with my children. Instead of just being passively doled out information, we have to figure out puzzles, perform economic transactions, and are actively invested in the outcomes, even if they are pre-determined*.  Eventually we will banish Ganondorf, restore peace to Hyrule, and maybe get to kiss Zelda.  The amount of reading my seven year old has to do is pretty impressive.   

And we kill a lot of things too and die a lot.  I imagine I have some parenting clean up to do in that respect.

 

* Uh, uh, I meant free will. er, compatiblism. um, fatalism. oh drat....