Josh -Lel- Posted March 24, 2014 Posted March 24, 2014 http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2587320/New-outbreak-deadly-flesh-eating-Ebola-virus-killed-59-people-Guinea-according-Unicef.htmlhttp://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/22/world/africa/fever-epidemic-guinea/http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-26701733http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/23/guinea-ebola-outbreak-conakryhttp://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-20341423No known cure, 12 day incubation period, 80% mortality rate, can be contracted through breathing infected air...EDOT: *sigh* ignore my stupid earlier assessments.
ribuck Posted March 24, 2014 Posted March 24, 2014 Large epidemics are unlikely to be a problem in the west. Outbreaks start with contact between humans and bats or primates, which is why outbreaks often occur in areas where people eat primate meat. Outbreaks do spread between humans, but not fast enough to stop the outbreak dying out. These outbreaks can be contained faster by improving hospital facilities and practises in the countries in which outbreaks start. I'm pretty sure your post is sarcastic, Josh [edit: based on content which you have since deleted], but others might not know that Ebola is way down low on the list of things that people in western countries might want to worry about.
Josh -Lel- Posted March 24, 2014 Author Posted March 24, 2014 I'm pretty sure your post is sarcastic, Josh, but others might not know that Ebola is way down low on the list of things that people in western countries might want to worry about. No I wasn't. Do you mean disease-wise, or just overall things the west has to worry about? Ebola is pretty frightening when it comes to diseases. Otherwise I guess I agree.
Josh -Lel- Posted March 25, 2014 Author Posted March 25, 2014 OK HOLD ON A MINUTE GUYS -- UPDATE!!!! http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-26726745A MAN IN CANADA HAS THE EBOLA VIRUS!!! He just came in from the region where the current outbreaks are happening in Africa... let's hope it doesn't spread!!!!
Josh -Lel- Posted March 25, 2014 Author Posted March 25, 2014 UPDATE -- 6 of the people in contact with the infected man have been infected and have all died except one who is being put into intensive treatment: http://news.yahoo.com/possible-ebola-case-canada-health-official-232704327.html
ribuck Posted March 25, 2014 Posted March 25, 2014 Ironically, the high death rate stops Ebola outbreaks from spreading widely. On average, each infected person infects less than one new person, so each outbreak will be contained.
Josh -Lel- Posted March 25, 2014 Author Posted March 25, 2014 I see you're very hopeful Ribuck... in most other cases of an Ebola outbreak, an isolated small hut village would get infected with the disease and the whole village would be wiped out, preventing the disease from spreading. Never before has Ebola come to a major city. I doubt it will end as well as you are making out to be.
endostate Posted March 25, 2014 Posted March 25, 2014 OK HOLD ON A MINUTE GUYS -- UPDATE!!!! http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-26726745THE MAN IN CANADA DOES NOT HAVE THE EBOLA VIRUS!!! He just came in from the region where the current outbreaks are happening in Africa...so there was some over reaction!!!!Josh -Lel- S had me doubting whether it would end as well as ribuck was making out to be. A+++++ THREAD!!! RIVETTING!!!
Josh -Lel- Posted March 25, 2014 Author Posted March 25, 2014 New Update --- Canadian man tested negative for Ebola and all other hemorrhagic known diseases, so it's being speculated that it's a severe form of malaria. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-26726745http://saskatoon.ctvnews.ca/ebola-ruled-out-in-case-of-saskatoon-patient-1.1743907I hope all this stuff blows over. OK HOLD ON A MINUTE GUYS -- UPDATE!!!! http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-26726745THE MAN IN CANADA DOES NOT HAVE THE EBOLA VIRUS!!! He just came in from the region where the current outbreaks are happening in Africa...so there was some over reaction!!!!Josh -Lel- S had me doubting whether it would end as well as ribuck was making out to be. A+++++ THREAD!!! RIVETTING!!! Hey What the hell mate, u makin fun of me??? THIS IS A POTENTIALLY VERY SERIOUS MATTER NOT TO BE JOKED WITH!!!! Glad you got the entertainement you came for...
ribuck Posted March 25, 2014 Posted March 25, 2014 I see you're very hopeful Ribuck... It's nothing to do with being hopeful. Instead, it's mathematics. If, on average, each person (before they recover or die) infects more than one other person, you get exponential growth and an epidemic that's hard to stop. If, on average, each person infects less than one other person, the epidemic will die out naturally (and can be helped to die out faster). Ebola is a particularly horrific disease for the affected individuals, but it won't affect huge populations. This could wipe out 90% of the world's population easily if its not contained. Josh, I'm wondering why you chose to post that part, since it's not supported by any of the sources that you quoted.
Josh -Lel- Posted March 25, 2014 Author Posted March 25, 2014 It's nothing to do with being hopeful. Instead, it's mathematics. If, on average, each person (before they recover or die) infects more than one other person, you get exponential growth and an epidemic that's hard to stop. If, on average, each person infects less than one other person, the epidemic will die out naturally (and can be helped to die out faster). EXACTLY!!!! Which is what is happening right now. You can infect people during incubation, and it lasts up to 21 days!!! imagine all the people you can infect BEFORE you have symptoms. You're right, that's an epidemic!! (if its true) Ebola is a particularly horrific disease for the affected individuals, but it won't affect huge populations. how do you reason so? Do you believe that on average only one person is being infected by the infected individuals? I'm afraid its a lot worse than that... Josh, I'm wondering why you chose to post that part, since it's not supported by any of the sources that you quoted. 'COULD' wipe out 90% of the population. Reasonable speculation on my part...
Wesley Posted March 25, 2014 Posted March 25, 2014 'COULD' wipe out 90% of the population. Reasonable speculation on my part... How do you know? If you could find a few credentialed experts (or even one to start) who think that that is a possibility, then I may consider it more reasonable to think that this situation may happen. Do such sources exist?
dsayers Posted March 25, 2014 Posted March 25, 2014 THIS IS A POTENTIALLY VERY SERIOUS MATTER NOT TO BE JOKED WITH!!!! It appears to have been edited out, but your opening post originally contained you feigning contracting the disease in mid-post. I realize that with just text, it's hard to get things like nuance and intonation. However, I will say that you talking about feeling something in your stomach came across as joking about it, which makes this quote a contradiction. The fact that it was edited out suggests that you agree with my interpretation of at least that part of it.
Josh -Lel- Posted March 26, 2014 Author Posted March 26, 2014 It appears to have been edited out, but your opening post originally contained you feigning contracting the disease in mid-post. I realize that with just text, it's hard to get things like nuance and intonation. However, I will say that you talking about feeling something in your stomach came across as joking about it, which makes this quote a contradiction. The fact that it was edited out suggests that you agree with my interpretation of at least that part of it. no i was just pointing out i was feelin the effects but I thought it would deter people from the thread so i edited it out... How do you know? If you could find a few credentialed experts (or even one to start) who think that that is a possibility, then I may consider it more reasonable to think that this situation may happen. Do such sources exist? Look PAL!!!!! if you understand the nature of Ebola, you'd see that its a highly dangerous virus in large populated areas, because it usually kills everyone who lives near each other. Before it was just in jungle hut villages, now its in major cities.We don't know at this time if it's actually spreading through North America and Europe, but my predictions tell me it already has, and in a few weeks billions of people will die.
Prairie Posted March 26, 2014 Posted March 26, 2014 Sounds exciting. What practical things would you suggest that people do to prepare, weighed against the credibility of your assessment? Alternately, what have you done to prepare so far? I figure it's the standard stuff one should have anyway: enough food for a week, water, matches, defense, a radio, batteries.
entropyanndroid Posted March 26, 2014 Posted March 26, 2014 >Be disease >Try to spread far and wide, quickly >Over do it, kill hosts in process, quickly >Outbreak fails, I die out >MFW Common Cold flourishes >MFW I have no face Seriously though, being a killer or permanently disabling disease is a terrible evolutionary strategy. A "smart" germ presents a minor, occasional nuisance, or no symptoms at all, like colds, flu, athletes foot and gut flora. Ebola is not a very smart disease.
dsayers Posted March 26, 2014 Posted March 26, 2014 That's one interpretation. The ability to unabashedly take down a victim a million times your size is pretty impressive. How does it survive/recur if it kills off its victims? I've heard of it before, so I'm assuming it's not new. How then is it still around?
entropyanndroid Posted March 26, 2014 Posted March 26, 2014 @dsayers It's transmitted to humans from primates. Some quick browsing indicates its treatable in primates even when symptomatic. Most of the classical killers of human beings, such a measles, mumps, rubella, smallpox, etc, have been spread by poor hygiene and close proximity to their food supply at multiple stages of it's lifecycle. Given the state of dire poverty in Africa, the effects of the equatorial climate, and the effects this has on the food available to many that live there, that Ebola can have such a pronounced impact on regional towns and villages is sad but unsurprising.
Wesley Posted March 26, 2014 Posted March 26, 2014 Look PAL!!!!! if you understand the nature of Ebola, you'd see that its a highly dangerous virus in large populated areas, because it usually kills everyone who lives near each other. Before it was just in jungle hut villages, now its in major cities.We don't know at this time if it's actually spreading through North America and Europe, but my predictions tell me it already has, and in a few weeks billions of people will die. This did not answer what I was asking, I would appreciate an answer so I can find a credible source for this theory. Regardless, this is an easy thing to test. I will set an alarm on my calendar for "a few weeks" which will be April 9th. The world's population is 7 billion people. In order for "billions" to die, that would be at least 2 billion. Thus, we will see if on April 9th the world population is less than 5 billion people, and the cause was this specific disease. If that happens, then you were right and your fears would be justified. If it does not happen, then I would be curious as to why you were making these posts and having these fears. It would be something very important to look at yourself and the thoughts that triggered these feelings.
ribuck Posted March 26, 2014 Posted March 26, 2014 My guess is that people such as Josh get a buzz from "doom porn" for much the same reason as some people cut themselves: it's the only way they know to feel energised and alive. It's sad that regular life doesn't provide the same buzz for them, but it's a common situation in modern societies.
Wesley Posted April 10, 2014 Posted April 10, 2014 I would just like to provide a quick update that it is April 9th and the world's population seems to be relatively stable and no massive disease is spreading and killing billions of people.
TheRobin Posted April 10, 2014 Posted April 10, 2014 My guess is that, Josh's original fear, that this Ebola might be transmittable thorugh air wasn't accurate. And if that's not the case, (and at least from my little understanding of Ebola), it can be "relatively" easily contained as it would then only spread through direct contact of bodily fluids
Josh -Lel- Posted May 12, 2014 Author Posted May 12, 2014 Sorry for the necrobump, but I wanted to apologize for blowing out of proportion the threat of the Ebola virus. I was legitimately worried about the threat of such a disease spreading through cities resulting in large epidemics, so I wanted to warn people here before that situation were upon us. Of course, it didn't turn out that way, and my predictions were completely off, so I may as well explain how I found out about the human-infecting Ebola strain... I originally learned about the outbreak in Africa from a "IT'S HAPPENING" thread, and became convinced that Ebola was going to take out most of the civilized world's population. I was on the verge of having a panic attack as these news articles came out, talking about new details about the outbreak. There were articles about the possibility of an "airborne" Ebola, which would certainly ensure the depopulation (either through evacuation or death) of cities. I was ready to buy a gun so that I had someway to end my miserable life lest I get the organ-melting, skin-tearing eye-bleeding virus.Now I see this event as another reminder that I have don't have a strong connection to myself or empircal reality, something I knew long before I made this thread and something I plan to work on. I don't think this invalidates the deadliness of Ebola and potential threat of Ebola (which is a lot less than thought before), and I wanted to warn people nonetheless, but fear-mongering and creating "doom porn" was not my goal.
Wesley Posted May 13, 2014 Posted May 13, 2014 Now I see this event as another reminder that I have don't have a strong connection to myself or empircal reality, something I knew long before I made this thread and something I plan to work on. Nice work, man. I also have gained respect for you after that post.
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