Research needed: "The Fall of Germany"

[Canoe_Captain]

This thread is for information regarding a presentation on "The Fall of Germany - Coming Catastrophes in the German Economy".

 

Please feel free to post interesting facts/statistics (preferably in bullet form) with links to the source material below.

Michael asked me if I would like to put the presentation together, and I am happy to do so.

 

Michael: “Basically, it's just a massive overview of the entire economic and social landscape of the various countries, the positives, the negatives and a future forecast based on current trends. Germany is our 5th biggest market, and we've already done videos on the top four markets.”

[Freedomain]

Bump.  Any thoughts?

[AustinJames]

Similarities between today's German economy and the German economy preceding the Third Reich may be interesting.  If you think this may be of interest, I can provide more details of my personal analysis.

[Canoe_Captain]

Similarities between today's German economy and the German economy preceding the Third Reich may be interesting.  If you think this may be of interest, I can provide more details of my personal analysis.

 

A different perspective than mine is very likely going to improve the presentation. So I think it is of interest to hear your personal analysis (with links to the source material, if possible).

[WizWom]

The biggest thing working against Germany is their energy costs rising dramatically due to the Green nonsense.http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials-brain-trust/060914-703954-mark-perry-nuclear-power-is-cleaner-than-the-green-alternatives.htm?p=full

[Duderio]

goodbye

[Canoe_Captain]

The biggest thing working against Germany is their energy costs rising dramatically due to the Green nonsense.http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials-brain-trust/060914-703954-mark-perry-nuclear-power-is-cleaner-than-the-green-alternatives.htm?p=full

 

Thank you for that source, I might use that graph to bolster up the part on rising electricity costs.

 

Please give me ... let's say 3 days to write something comprehensive up.

No Problem. If you post it till the night of Saturday 14th, I will be able to incorporate it.

[alexanderg]

Wenn du möchtest, kann ich auch diese Informationen durch meinen YouTube Kanal (The Critical G) entweder auf Englisch oder Deutsch (oder beide!) präsentieren.

 

If you like, I can also present this information on my YouTube channel (The Critical G) either in English or German, or both.

[Canoe_Captain]

If you like, I can also present this information on my YouTube channel (The Critical G) either in English or German, or both.

 

I am putting together this presentation for Mike (his forum name is MMD). So that FDR has some additional material to make a video on the German economic and social landscape. I would suggest that you discuss your idea with Mike, since he started this research initiative. Thank you for your offer.

[Duderio]

goodbye

[Duderio]

goodbye

[Canoe_Captain]

So hey, still not done.

 

Here are some quick new points, if you can still squeeze them in. I'm not gonna make it before tomorrow evening to finish.

(if you want btw, I am in Leipzig with access to the National Library, so I could do some old school research next week if you got more time?)

 

Thank you for your research and feedback. Everything until now I can use as feedback. By next week I want to already be finished with the presentation. Thank you for the offer though. 

 

If you like to do research for FDR presentations like me, you could offer some research help to Mike or check out the forum board for Freedomain Radio Projects

[Duderio]

goodbye

[Freedomain]

Sooo

 

First off, once again thanks for the work.

 

Now to the details:

 

-slide #2 & #3 about military expenditure/contribution > I wouldn't use those at all. It's no indicator of decline really. FDR is ultimately about peace. NATO is not.

I would rather mention that Germany is still an occupied country and almost a US puppet/satellite state, as the handling of the NSA & Snowden affair, the participation in the Afghanistan war and the illegal war against Serbia in the late 90's showed.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/gchq-and-nsa-targeted-private-german-companies-a-961444.html

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/the-political-debate-over-offering-snowden-asylum-in-germany-a-931497.html

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/cover-story-how-nsa-spied-on-merkel-cell-phone-from-berlin-embassy-a-930205.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US_military_bases#Joint_overseas

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Army_installations_in_Germany

 

-slide #4 : again, I am not sure how the number of imprisoned people is supposed to be indicative of a decline? I would cut out the comparison to other States and either put in a longer term trend or not use it.

 

-slide #5 and following : good ones, I would include the info, that 1998 marked the rise to power (until 2005) of the Socialist Democrat/Green Party Coalition.

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/14._Deutscher_Bundestag

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/15._Deutscher_Bundestag

It might also be a worthy side note, that Germany, resulting from its shattering experiences during the first half of the 20th century, developed a strong Peace/Anti-War-Movement during the sixties/'68, which in turn spawned the Anti-Arms Race/Anti-Nuclear Weapons and finally Anti-Nuclear Power Movement.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-nuclear_movement_in_Germany

 

Further articles on the energy situation:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/high-costs-and-errors-of-german-transition-to-renewable-energy-a-920288.html

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/commentary-why-germany-is-waging-its-green-revolution-wrong-a-929693.html

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/researchers-alarmed-at-rise-in-german-brown-coal-power-output-a-942216.html

 

Mentioning the coal industry subsidies might also be worth a note.

 

German dependency on Russian energy imports is another problematic issue due to the recent Ukraine crisis .

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/german-alternatives-to-russian-gas-numerous-but-pricey-a-967682.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Stream_pipeline

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yamal%E2%80%93Europe_pipeline

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Stream_pipeline#mediaviewer/File:Major_russian_gas_pipelines_to_europe.png

 

-#9 : good one, the German real estate bubble is definitly a factor.

 

The new 'Mietpreisbremse' (rent price break or simpy rent control) imposed by the new Coalition (made up of half Socialist Democrats) will even deteriorate the situation as owners will have to find 'creative' ways to keep up prices.

 

-#10 : the 'official' inflation rate

 

-#11 : additional info might be interesting, one of the few reasons, Germany is in better shape than PIGS and France is its ranking on the Economic Freedom Index : Germany place 19, Spain 46, France 62(!!!), Portugal 67, Italy 83(!!!!!!!), Greece 117(!!!!!!!!!!)

 

-#12 : Stef has expressed some concern over the objective truth expressed by the GDP, I as well think, that it is not the best indicator of sorts, given than the German economy after '45 was nonexisting, astonishing growth rates were possible, so I think it's a bit manipulative, but then again, there might be some value in it.

As for the reasons why Germany startet to go downhill from the 70s onwards, guess what, in 1969 the first Great Coalition of the Christian-Democrats (somewhat comparable to the US Republicans) and the Social Democrats (comparable to the US Democrats/Labour) came into power, the Reds starting to pollute the economy with their union crap and the usual Leftist BS.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_German_federal_election,_1969

In 1972 this got worse, the Social Democrats became the strongest party. The Reds stayed in power until 1982/83.

Now from 1982-1998 the Christian Democrats and the Free Democrats (I guess not comparable to US politics, an economy, tax-reductive and civil liberties friendly party, maybe even slightly minarchist) ruled, and guess what > GDP growth stayed at the same level. (Ok it could be argued the German reunification in 1990 should have spawned a higher number, but still)

 

Maybe at this point we need a follow up slide with increase of welfare expenditures and state debt.

 

#17 : not really sure if needed

 

#19 : should be a follow up to slide #12 (maybe a comment about the allegedly 2 trillions of transfer money to the East German territory after 1990 should be included, no other industrialized country on the earth has yet face the challenge of integrating a 17 million people rotten communist economy; the ransom paid to the Russian troops so they would finally leave is maybe also worth mentioning, as well as Germany's historic financial subsidies for Israel's military)

 

#23 : maybe de-valuation of the currency would be more apropriate since it might confuse some people, that the inflation starts at 100, most people, if they are as basic as me, might be irritated that this is supposed to be the inflation rate, when it's not.

So I suggest either renaming or reversing the graph to inflation rate style.

 

Is #26 actually correct? I thought we have more bureaucrats, teachers, professors, soldiers, nurses?

 

#27 : now add income tax to that.

 

#28 : I would again move this behind slide #12.

Again, nice to see how it started to go off the rails starting in '69 to '82, ah the Socialists influence...

And then as another explanation for the next rise starting in '90, after the reunification, a lot of East Germans not having the mentality to make the switch to work in a less restricted economy, lots of factories were closed, sold at undervalued prices (deals in those days would later be repeated in post-Soviet Russia by guys like Abramovich), people layed off, drinking and welfare started in the former GDR. Combine that with immigration from Bosnia/Croatia/Yugoslavia due to the Civil war there and a continuing number of Turkish and Arab immigrants, most of which were not qualified and lacking language skills. Germany due to its historic guilt complex (WW2 & holocaust) had for a long long time, very lax immigration laws (some might argue even to this day). Of course the Left usually fights the hard reality of disclosing which groups make up the biggest welfare recipients...

 

#30 : don't really understand this one to be honest, are there words on the scales missing? like 'age' or something?

 

#37 & following : As tax & insurance burden, government debt, welfare expenditures, the destruction of the family, rise of single motherhood, cost of living (housing bubble) increases, the birth rate goes down, men go on strike, politicians use the rhetoric that children and families are the most important thing, yet free paternity testing is not even legal, schooling is compulsory, homeschooling persecuted, etc.

 

#41 : Wow, over 10% where no one works. The long term intergenerational welfare recipients.

 

#46 : And of course the seniors become the biggest voting group, voting for increasing benefits from the young, the Gerontocracy will bring down the birth rate and youth even more, Germany is heading, thanks to the state, socialism and feminism into a giant crater.

The only solution will be 'more immigration' - which in turn is gonna produce even more problems and possible welfare costs, let alone the difference in mentality and values...

 

So far so good, really great work man.

I realize most of my amateur talk is just commentary, take it for what it's worth.

 

Now I'm gonna watch the Videos about the US, Canada, UK, Australia and Europe to get some more inspiration.

I also have further ideas, but I'm gonna put them in a new post and they are not as well researched as your material.

Be back in a couple of hours.

 

Just a quick note.  This is more the state of Germany overall as opposed to the decline of Germany. Stuff like military expenditures and imprisoned population numbers are worth including.

[AustinJames]

Similarities between today's German economy and the German economy preceding the Third Reich may be interesting.  If you think this may be of interest, I can provide more details of my personal analysis.

 

 

 

A different perspective than mine is very likely going to improve the presentation. So I think it is of interest to hear your personal analysis (with links to the source material, if possible).

 

 

While reading The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich, a few details of the economy and regulation struck me as similar to Germany today.  The more research I did, however, the less similarity I saw.  This presentation is excellent. Any attempt to draw similarities between these two eras would be, to me, a distraction from the poignant effect of the information; not to mention an opportunity for critics to waste time reading various historical accounts in order to arbitrarily list the differences.  I rescind my original suggestion, and would like to compliment all who were a part of this project.  Fantastic work!

[Canoe_Captain]

The work is done. FDR published the video.

 

Thanks again to everybody who posted in this thread.

 

[Heiko Cochius]

This video touched my heart unexpectedly, because you wouldn´t think that an economic topic can do that. But the economy is about human needs and goals, about suffering and opportunity. So this video is an extra helping of empathy for the German brothers in the fight. Thank you so much, Stef!

[Canoe_Captain]

The publisher Gabor Steingart of the newspaper Handelsblatt (biggest German business newspaper) sent all readers the book "Prosperity for All" by Ludwig Erhard as Christmas surprise present. Furthermore it was accompanied by an article focusing on topics similar to this presentation.

 

Some excerpts:

 

Those virtues to which Germany owes its economic success and social balance are no longer in demand. The governance of Ludwig Erhard, which was based on fair competition, entrepreneurial freedom and compassion for the losers of society is gone out of fashion.

 

The politicians do not want to convince the voters, but to buy them.

 

The consumer must pay the energy transition at higher and higher prices.But also the price of industrial electricity is 150 percent above that of the United States.

 

The birth rate has halved since the 60s of the 20th century. The contract between generations - son and daughter pay the pension of mother and father was crushed.

 

The aim of the German social policy must be to preserve all social groups against a development in which they become merely objects of state welfare.

 

This dependence on the state welfare may be annoying for the financiers, but it is especially dangerous for the recipients themselves. They forget forget what it is like to achieve, it reduces self-esteem, it creates dependency ranging far beyond the financial.

 

Here is an English Google translation of the article

http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=&sl=de&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.handelsblatt.com%2Fpolitik%2Fdeutschland%2Fhandelsblatt-aktion-erhards-kompass-fuer-die-kanzlerin-seite-all%2F11144114-all.html&sandbox=1