Housing market in the next 24 months, inflation, stock market bubble

[mlsv2f]

Hi all,

 

I am considering purchasing a home in the next 6-18 months. My plan has been to wait until the stock market corrects itself, as I think its pretty clear we are experiencing and inflation and QE induced bubble.

 

With that being said, I listened to the podcast with Schiff last night an I began to think, if the dollar collapses before the market, it would make housing prices skyrocket first.

 

My thoughts are that they would let the stock market collapse before the dollar ever collapsed, as they can buy more time with QE 4/5. Additionally they can blame the market for a stock crash, but can't blame the market for a dollar crash (maybe they will try, it wouldn't surprise me haha)

 

I wanted to get your thoughts on this, and any other considerations you would want to add.

 

I currently reside in Houston, Texas.

 

Thanks

[John Sambrook]

Thank you for starting this thread.

 

I'm currently closing on a condominium purchase here in Seattle, Washington.

 

Like you, I have been wondering about how home prices will move over time.

 

Generally speaking, I think it's all pretty much a rigged game these days.

 

Not putting all of one's eggs in a single basket seems wise. 

 

I regret that I don't have anything more substantial to say at this time.

 

Best,

 

John

[Alan C.]

I'm convinced that housing is currently in a bubble due to the availability of cheap credit. More demand = artificially inflated prices.

[mlsv2f]

Agreed, between than, the 1.4 trillion in student debt, the propped up equity markets and the strain on government as the workforce part. rate declines due to the sluggish economy and retirement of the boomers, I plan on waiting until the temp. bubble pops.

 

My worry is that when the REAL collapse hits, I don't want to be landless.

[mlsv2f]

my strategy is to find credits and bargains in a way that "beats" the market. you don't want to buy right at market value and expect any kind of return. if you just need a house, and you can afford what you're buying, and it's not overpriced comparatively, then I don't think there's much to be gained in waiting for market conditions to change. but even better if you need a house, can afford what you're buying, and can find some "free money" to subsidize your purchase and drive your costs below market value. for example, getting your seller to pay some closing costs, bargaining in some repairs to be done, finding a property that qualifies for tax credits, saving money by doing repairs & improvements yourself, etc. don't know if any of that is helpful.

 

Very helpful, the only issue I am worried about in buying too soon, is seeing a 10-30% reduction in its value 6-36 months after I buy it. At that point, we are talking about 30-90k in FMV loss. I know a drop is coming, its just a matter a when and the severity of it that creates the problem

[powder]

Very helpful, the only issue I am worried about in buying too soon, is seeing a 10-30% reduction in its value 6-36 months after I buy it. At that point, we are talking about 30-90k in FMV loss. I know a drop is coming, its just a matter a when and the severity of it that creates the problem

If previous market trends hold, then there is another bubble burst right around the corner (every 7 years it seems) - perhaps this fall.  If you are financing a large portion and interest rates get pushed up in the 'correction', then you need to consider how that will impact you as well.  I'd wait a few months and see what plays out.  good luck.  

[utopian]

So am I, OP. I have been following the housing market for a while now. I have plenty of resources, but I think the most interesting for you would be these three;

 

 

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/housing-bubble-ahead-some-us-markets-might-be-ready-to-pop/ar-BBgv6CB?ocid=mailsignout

 

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/brace-for-a-flood-of-foreclosures-when-boom-era-helocs-turn-10/ar-AAbDeGu?ocid=mailsignout

 

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/housing-bubble-2-has-bloomed-into-full-magnificence/ar-AAdJCe0?ocid=mailsignout

 

 

 

 

It used to be that only the "crazies" thought this was coming, now it's all over mainstream media. 

 

 

I had a lot of silver during the previous housing bubble. If you pull up a chart of the housing and silver index, you may notice there was a point at which silver peaked near 50 an ounce, and housing bottomed. My plan is to dump my silver next time it happens and put it into a house. Silver is very cheap right now. You may want to invest in some to slingshot your way into a house.

[Alan C.]

Report: 1 In 4 US Homes Worth Less Than A Year Ago

 

Northeast markets like Washington, D.C., Baltimore, and Philadelphia have seen price declines of more than 40 percent, as reported by CBS News. Metro areas in the Midwest like Pittsburgh, Chicago, Cincinnati and Cleveland, experienced declines of more than 30 percent.

“It’s easy to say the recession is over when a third of the biggest markets are more expensive now than ever before, but we’re still seeing a number of homes losing value,” Svenja Gudell, Zillow’s chief economist, said in a statement. “The reality is there are still areas lagging behind in the recovery.”

Dallas, San Francisco, and Denver saw double-digit increases last year, but this year they experienced single-digit percentage price declines.

 

Homeownership rate drops to 63.4%, lowest since 1967

 

I think the bubble is deflating.

[Nitrocellulose]

I bought a house with a fixed rate mortgage that we could afford with just one income. My strategy is to acquire physical gold and silver so that I can make some moves in a currency crisis and pay off the mortgage with hyper inflated dollars. And if the crisis never comes or I get locked out somehow I can still pay off early. Just my two cents.

[jughead]

I think anybody who is paying attention and has some knowledge of economics is predicting another crash. The million dollar question of course is when and how severe. The amount of monetary expansion the US has engaged in for the last 10-15 years should have resulted in massive price inflation, however most of this seems to have been taken up in asset prices rather than consumer prices, hence the stock market and real estate bubbles. Another factor that seems to be delaying the inevitable currency crisis is the role of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency, which means any potential inflation is spread around the world and the full effect on the domestic market is greatly reduced.

 

Fortunately for me I bought my house right before the market started surging. My advice to anyone considering buying at the moment is to make sure you can afford the payments, and also make sure you can afford the higher payments if interest rates come back to rational levels. Beyond that, nobody can time the market so don't even go there.

[utopian]

Wanna see what Merrill Lynch thinks?

 

https://www.ml.com/articles/the-state-of-the-housing-market.html?sr_source=lift_outbrain/&utm_source=simplereach&utm_medium=display&utm_content=1x1_custom.jpg&utm_campaign=2015_merrill_lynch_display&cm_mmc=gwim-integrated-_-simplereach-_-1x1_custom.jpg-_-na

 

"...home prices going forward are set to... slow."

"...home price appreciation flattens..."

"...home prices are becoming overvalued relative to income."

"...we're already above the bubble peak."

 

Gotta be careful not to cause any panic with any extraneous words, we wouldnt want another taper tantrum.

 

 

[Alan C.]

We haven't seen massive price inflation is for a couple of reasons.

 

1. It can take years for new money to bid up prices as it circulates.

2. Trillions of dollars are currently 'frozen' in bonds and cannot be used to bid up prices (like writing somebody a check and telling them not to cash it for years).

[Susana]

Also look into the book "Clouded Titles" about the MERS mortgage scams going on natio