J. D. Stembal Posted August 13, 2015 Posted August 13, 2015 Peter Schiff is making more and more sense, and China has made the first move toward killing off the U.S. Dollar. I came out of a self-imposed vacation from the forums to post this. This is important! "The shelves at WalMart will be empty." - Peter Schiff 2 1
jason_ Posted August 14, 2015 Posted August 14, 2015 I think Peter has a great understanding of market fundamentals and economy. As I have come to be more aware of these things, I've become convinced the system of fractional reserve banking is doomed. That that remained from me was 'when?'. I figured as long as the military wasn't touched this system would continue. As of late, soldiers and sailors, the little people in the military industrial complex, have been effected by the weaknesses in our monetary system with job cuts (Perform to Serve in the Navy, etc) and the situation with the V.A.. To me these are clear signals that the system is in trouble. Peter talks about things with a tone of immediacy, and indeed the developments in the market lately (the Fed with it's back against the wall to raise rates even though the real economy is still week, market distortions caused by QE, the derivatives bubble, China slow down, etc) send the same sorts of troubling signals. But, who's to say how day to day life will be impacted over the next 6mos, year, 5 years, etc? What do you think?
Mosterton Posted August 16, 2015 Posted August 16, 2015 OK, so let me get this off my chest... I squirm a little every time Peter or Stefan states the Fed's money printing / QE program will lead to the dollar becoming worthless - it's way too simplistic. You have to understand global capital flows for a start - if money is fleeing Europe and its Euro currency, there will be greater demand for US dollars. The Fed can do very little to counteract this. Similarly, hedge funds with massive sums of money have nowhere safer to park money than in the US stock market. In this case it's not money printing causing a direct rise in the stock market, but beacuse it's the only financial system capable and secure enough to transfer massive funds into (and out of) quickly. You can't seriously suggest a US dollar crash without suggesting where, for example, multi-billion pension funds will flow to in a time of global economic uncertainty - Bitcoin? Gold? Chinese Yuan? Euros? I found it a bit frustrating in the recent interview between Stef and Peter they didn't ponder question that despite global QE / money printing programs, why are commodity and supermarket prices falling? OK, that's my rant over. I'd love the FDR team to do a podcast on why the economic trend is currently one of deflation, despite all the central banks printing money. Particularly how factors such as increased taxation and the repayment of debt are deflationary forces.
Guest Gee Posted August 16, 2015 Posted August 16, 2015 Here is a video presentation from 2010 by Mike Maloney of goldSilver.com in which he predicts the oil price deflation. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wdKXXKyaBvw
J. D. Stembal Posted August 17, 2015 Author Posted August 17, 2015 I think Peter has a great understanding of market fundamentals and economy. As I have come to be more aware of these things, I've become convinced the system of fractional reserve banking is doomed. That that remained from me was 'when?'. I figured as long as the military wasn't touched this system would continue. As of late, soldiers and sailors, the little people in the military industrial complex, have been effected by the weaknesses in our monetary system with job cuts (Perform to Serve in the Navy, etc) and the situation with the V.A.. To me these are clear signals that the system is in trouble. Peter talks about things with a tone of immediacy, and indeed the developments in the market lately (the Fed with it's back against the wall to raise rates even though the real economy is still week, market distortions caused by QE, the derivatives bubble, China slow down, etc) send the same sorts of troubling signals. But, who's to say how day to day life will be impacted over the next 6mos, year, 5 years, etc? What do you think? Schiff speaks with immediacy because there is no way of knowing when the U.S. Dollar will be put on the chopping block. If you wait, and try to finesse the play on the economic collapse, you will fail. Every month, we should be squirreling away more and more real money, and real assets and ditching paper assets. I've been slowly, and steadily stuffing away all sorts of kit for a rainy day. (See my Psychology of Stacking video here.) It's not a matter of "IF" but when the dollar collapses, and it will change everything in our economy and our lives. Will we be ready? Personally, I would rather that it happen to my children's children than during my own lifetime, because it will be traumatic, grueling and violent. Cannibalism will likely make a comeback. Unfortunately, I will likely still be alive when the world economic paradigm changes.
shirgall Posted August 17, 2015 Posted August 17, 2015 If everyone devalues their currency at once, and you get worldwide inflation, it only makes debt and cash worth less, and real property and commodities worth more in relative terms. Is this the real plot, to diminish all debts by making them relatively worthless because they are termed in yesterday's dollars?
Mosterton Posted August 17, 2015 Posted August 17, 2015 If everyone devalues their currency at once, and you get worldwide inflation, it only makes debt and cash worth less, and real property and commodities worth more in relative terms. Is this the real plot, to diminish all debts by making them relatively worthless because they are termed in yesterday's dollars? But everyone is devaluing their currency yet we are seeing deflation in commodities. Even if you could magically predict every action by the FED for the next decade, I doubt you could use this info to make successful investments in say, gold or property. The manner in which billions of individuals around the world choose to spend or save their money far exceeds the power of central banks. I could argue that the US is not simply printing away all its financial problems. Rather it is desperate for cash, which is why you get tax hikes in Chicago and the cost of Obamacare.
shirgall Posted August 17, 2015 Posted August 17, 2015 But everyone is devaluing their currency yet we are seeing deflation in commodities. Even if you could magically predict every action by the FED for the next decade, I doubt you could use this info to make successful investments in say, gold or property. The manner in which billions of individuals around the world choose to spend or save their money far exceeds the power of central banks. I could argue that the US is not simply printing away all its financial problems. Rather it is desperate for cash, which is why you get tax hikes in Chicago and the cost of Obamacare. I'm just wondering if the way they see out of $100T+ of debt seems to be to make "trillion" meaningless.
J. D. Stembal Posted August 19, 2015 Author Posted August 19, 2015 I'm just wondering if the way they see out of $100T+ of debt seems to be to make "trillion" meaningless. Expressed as a net balance, there is more debt in the world than assets to buy with the debt. Does this fact make the debt meaningless? Does increasing debt change anything?
green banana Posted August 19, 2015 Posted August 19, 2015 Expressed as a net balance, there is more debt in the world than assets to buy with the debt. Does this fact make the debt meaningless? Does increasing debt change anything? By definition, the net balance has to be 0 (think about double bookkeeping to get it). Loans are an asset too, since they produce income. They can also be turned into bonds.
Magnetic Synthesizer Posted August 22, 2015 Posted August 22, 2015 http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/ so now is it going to fall back to shit? is this when the showdown gets real? nvm I looked at the history of data, and it might be just a bump.
mlsv2f Posted August 25, 2015 Posted August 25, 2015 Can someone explain the difference between "currency devaluation" and hyperinflation. Maybe I'm just cynical, but it seems to be this is just another newspeak way of announcing the fact they are having a printing party in china.
shirgall Posted August 25, 2015 Posted August 25, 2015 Currency devaluation is what happens when one currency is manipulated with respect to another. Inflation is what happens when one currency is manipulated against itself.
Alan C. Posted August 25, 2015 Posted August 25, 2015 Currency devalutation and inflation are the same thing. Hyper-inflation is a situation in which significant price inflation occurs rapidly (eg. double-digit loss of purchasing power per month) resulting in people dumping currency as quickly as possible (exchanging it for other currencies or commodities, and possibly switching to barter). Venezuela is currently experiencing this.
percentient Posted August 25, 2015 Posted August 25, 2015 A huge inflation inevitably devalues the currency, but it's not necessary. All they need to do is shuffle existing money around and keep their existing capital flow restrictions in place. If they drop those restrictions and currency manipulation (which is the trend since the 90s) the Yuan will find an equilibrium much higher than now.
mlsv2f Posted August 25, 2015 Posted August 25, 2015 Currency devaluation is what happens when one currency is manipulated with respect to another. Inflation is what happens when one currency is manipulated against itself. Are they not one in the same in that you have to increase the supply of said currency? China can't just change what Global Markets are valuing the USD/Yuan, all they can do is inflate the Yuan from my understanding
shirgall Posted August 25, 2015 Posted August 25, 2015 Are they not one in the same in that you have to increase the supply of said currency? China can't just change what Global Markets are valuing the USD/Yuan, all they can do is inflate the Yuan from my understanding Indeed, the names do not differentiate on the cause, only on the effect. If you looking at differentiation on cause instead of effect you get things like "printing money", "fractional reserve lending", and "quantitative easing."
Tservitive Posted August 26, 2015 Posted August 26, 2015 With all of this talk about inflation and currency devaluation, I'm wondering when we should be concerned about a Greek style Bail-In happening in the US.
J. D. Stembal Posted August 26, 2015 Author Posted August 26, 2015 By definition, the net balance has to be 0 (think about double bookkeeping to get it). Loans are an asset too, since they produce income. They can also be turned into bonds. No, that's incorrect. Check your definitions. Thanks to the Mandrake Mechanism of Fractional Reserve Banking there is much, much more debt in the world than valued assets. See The Creature from Jeckyll Island or any of Mike Maloney's The Hidden Secrets of Money videos. https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=the+hidden+secrets+of+money
jason_ Posted September 5, 2015 Posted September 5, 2015 Currency devalutation and inflation are the same thing. When it comes to fundamentals, I think it's hard to argue with this. Expressed as a net balance, there is more debt in the world than assets to buy with the debt. I think by definition fractional reserve banking requires this condition. There always needs to be more debt in the world than money to pay it back so people keep taking loans and working to pay them off. If that sounds ridiculous, that's because it is and it's even more so to think people allow this to go on. The interest rates (on loans) controlled by central banks, and are part of the central authority's power to control the market and by extension the nation. 1
J. D. Stembal Posted September 5, 2015 Author Posted September 5, 2015 When it comes to fundamentals, I think it's hard to argue with this. I think by definition fractional reserve banking requires this condition. There always needs to be more debt in the world than money to pay it back so people keep taking loans and working to pay them off. It that sounds ridiculous, that's because it is and it's even more so to think people allow this to go on. The interest rates (on loans) controlled by central banks, and are part of the central authority's power to control the market and by extension the nation. Absolutely, Lakona. I'm far from a religious man, but there is a very good reason for deeming usury a sin in the bible.
J. D. Stembal Posted November 12, 2015 Author Posted November 12, 2015 We are currently on the tenth straight trading session with silver taking a loss. Today would make it eleven. DXY is above 99 again. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DXY:CUR One US dollar buys almost 6.4 RMB. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDCNY:CURGet it while the getting is good, guys.
J. D. Stembal Posted November 13, 2015 Author Posted November 13, 2015 Mike Maloney released his preview of the Hidden Secrets of Money, Part VI: https://www.hiddensecretsofmoney.com/videos/hsom6-preview-maloney
J. D. Stembal Posted November 18, 2015 Author Posted November 18, 2015 Silver spot price is down for the 15th trading session in a row.
J. D. Stembal Posted November 26, 2015 Author Posted November 26, 2015 When it comes to fundamentals, I think it's hard to argue with this. I think by definition fractional reserve banking requires this condition. There always needs to be more debt in the world than money to pay it back so people keep taking loans and working to pay them off. If that sounds ridiculous, that's because it is and it's even more so to think people allow this to go on. The interest rates (on loans) controlled by central banks, and are part of the central authority's power to control the market and by extension the nation. Mike Maloney explained how this works recently on USA Watchdog: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6PZ3-Rg7x7wt=6:00
jason_ Posted December 1, 2015 Posted December 1, 2015 Mike Maloney explained how this works recently on USA Watchdog: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6PZ3-Rg7x7wt=6:00 Hi JD, Yeah, I watched this. I'm watching Maloney's series too.
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