Freedomain Posted October 29, 2015 Posted October 29, 2015 The fiercely debated issue of Gun Control strongly divides Democrats and Republicans in the United States of America. The Second Amendment becomes a hot topic of conversation whenever a shooting makes the national news and tempers flare across the political spectrum. This presentation presents the available evidence regarding gun prevalence, gun homicides, gun control laws and much more in an attempt to get to the bottom of this complicated issue. What is the Truth About Gun Control? Suicide http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr63/nvsr63_09.pdf#page=10 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_suicide_rate#List_by_the_World_Health_Organization_.282012.29http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlines/2012/12/strict-gun-control-laws-in-south-koreahttp://webappa.cdc.gov/sasweb/ncipc/leadcaus10_us.htmlhttp://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/re-reference-tables.html?edition=tcm%3A77-327590 Gun Sources http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fv9311.pdf Australian Gun Control http://www.aic.gov.au/media_library/publications/mr/mr01/mr01.pdf#page=35http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/current%20series/mr/21-40/mr23/appendix_a.htmlhttp://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTLhttp://www.loc.gov/law/help/firearms-control/australia.php#Firearms Number of Guns http://engagedscholarship.csuohio.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1679&context=urban_facpubhttp://www.ucrdatatool.govhttps://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/crime-in-the-u.s.-2014/tables/table-1 2002 State Gun Ownership and Crime https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2002/02sec2.pdf#page=207https://www.census.gov/popest/data/historical/2000s/vintage_2002/state.htmlhttps://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2002/table5_state02.xlshttp://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/116/3/e370.full.pdf+html Washington, DC Crime http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/dccrime.htmhttp://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/13/us/13deecee.html?_r=2&n=Top%2FReference%2FTimes%20Topics%2FPeople%2FW%2FWilliams%2C%20Anthony%20A.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Firearms_Control_Regulations_Act_of_1975 CDC Gun Control Report http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/pdf/rr/rr5214.pdf Crime by Race https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/crime-in-the-u.s.-2014http://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-04.pdf#page=15 Because of the obscure way in which the FBI reports the race and ethnicity of offenders, we had to make several approximations. First off, Hispanic data is separated from race data and is broken down to "Hispanic" or "not Hispanic" for the entire dataset. While it is safe to assume that most Hispanics were classified as white because of the colour of their skin, we didn't want to make any assumptions. To figure out the percentage of Hispanic offenders and separate it from the white, black, asian etc. race categories, we used Census data on how Hispanics identify themselves racially. Not surprisingly, the vast majority of them identify as white, and very few consider themselves black. Given the very low percentage of black Hispanics, we counted "Some Other Race" as white. Another problem with the FBI dataset was the vast number of "Unknown" reported offenders. Because we couldn't make any reasonable assumptions about the race of the unknown offenders, we used the arrest tables as a proxy for the distribution of crime by race. International Crime Comparison https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate Gang Crime https://www.fbi.gov/stats-services/publications/2011-national-gang-threat-assessmenthttps://www.nationalgangcenter.gov/survey-analysis/demographicshttp://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=2221 2014 City Crime Data City data from the U.S. Census Bureau: http://www.census.gov City Crime data from the FBI: https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/crime-in-the-u.s.-2014/tables/table-6 6
AccuTron Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 I look forward to investigating more of these links. The first link I clicked, the International Crime, showed some darker-is-worse shading on the world map, usually in a predictable fashion. The standout was Greenland, at 10-20 homicides per 100,000 one of the worst categories. Current population is 57,000, indicating a total homicide count of maybe a dozen or fewer. I can't help but wonder if it was one bad bar fight, and Greenland is usually a lighter shade of homicide.
Troubador Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 I'm in the U.K. and we don't have many guns, and yet the sun manages to rise and set each day. Life goes on much as it always does. I remember looking at U.S. gun law several years ago back when I was dating an American, and the conclusion I drew from what what I saw was could America model its firearm legislation on Canada? At the time I looked at it gun ownership per head of the population was comparable between the U.S. and Canada? Yet Canada doesn't have anything like the gun related crime America does. Could a Canadian model work? What differences exist between the two nations that could account for this? Believe me it makes no odds to me wether Americans decide en masse wether they want guns or not, but speaking as an outside observer who happens to like America and its people it is always saddening to turn on the TV to yet another mass shooting. I would imagine those big shootings are anomalous in that more people are probably killed that never make the news, and the media is usually atrocious at tackling the bigger problem. One thing that terrifies me from the presentation are black lives still so inconsequential in American society that nobody in the media cares to draw attention to it? If the biggest demographic of both victims and perpetrators are from within the black community and nobody cares to even name it I'd more worried about being racist for not holding black lives as sacred as any others, than for being accused of racism for casting a critical eye over the culture that perpetuates it... 4
dsayers Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 I'm in the U.K. and we don't have many guns, and yet the sun manages to rise and set each day. The sun appears to rise and set each day all over the world because of Earth's spin. In what way does referencing this at the same time as something else that has no impact on either the Earth's spin or man's ability to see the sun have any meaning? 1
Guest Gee Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 What differences exist between the two nations that could account for this? Believe me it makes no odds to me wether Americans decide en masse wether they want guns or not, but speaking as an outside observer who happens to like America and its people it is always saddening to turn on the TV to yet another mass shooting. Did you take a look at the population percentage by ethnicity in the US vs UK and compare the statistics with the findings of the video, namely the negative correlation between white population and crime? Do you not think that an increased number of privately owned guns in the UK would of had a beneficial effect in reducing the number of children sexually abused by muslum rape gangs? This article from zero hedge seems relevent to this topic. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-28/austria-runs-out-long-guns-europeans-scramble-protection-against-islamic-invasion
thebeardslastcall Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 One thing that terrifies me from the presentation are black lives still so inconsequential in American society that nobody in the media cares to draw attention to it? If the biggest demographic of both victims and perpetrators are from within the black community and nobody cares to even name it I'd more worried about being racist for not holding black lives as sacred as any others, than for being accused of racism for casting a critical eye over the culture that perpetuates it... Maybe they don't cover it more because it isn't news as it happens so regularly and the media isn't about news, but entertainment to get ad money. The problem with the black lives matter thing is that they're pointing their signs at the wrong people. Instead of pointing it at the black people doing most of the crimes they're pointing it at politicians and cops as if they're the biggest source or primary problems in regards black murders. The biggest problem with everyone playing the race card is that it perpetuates the no responsibility culture that plagues these troubled communities and prevents them from taking the personal responsibility they need to get themselves out of the crap they're standing in. You can debate all day and night whose fault it is they're standing in crap or you can just start walking until you're out of the crap, because you're going to get yourself out by just getting walking much faster than by blaming everyone else for it and waiting for someone to drag you out. People don't serve their communities by looting innocents when they get upset by some killing by a cop or by pretending that the guy was innocent when he wasn't. The media isn't at biggest fault for not covering all the killings, but for making it all about race when they do. Racism culture by the media and others just promotes disempowerment. 1
Eternal Growth Posted October 30, 2015 Posted October 30, 2015 I'm in the U.K. and we don't have many guns, and yet the sun manages to rise and set each day. Life goes on much as it always does. The UK is collapsing and the only things that are barely keeping it afloat economically are immigrant labour and imported technology. I remember looking at U.S. gun law several years ago back when I was dating an American, and the conclusion I drew from what what I saw was could America model its firearm legislation on Canada? At the time I looked at it gun ownership per head of the population was comparable between the U.S. and Canada? Yet Canada doesn't have anything like the gun related crime America does. Could a Canadian model work? By what right are some humans allowed to use guns to impose a "Canadian model", American model, or Whatever model on other humans?
labmath2 Posted October 31, 2015 Posted October 31, 2015 I do not dispute any of the data, but the data analysis is meh. I am reading how to lie with statistics now so i think i am more sensitive to how you present data. A glaring example is the graphs that show correlation. I think correlation is calculated using averages, but what happens when the variance is high. How reliable are those correlation vales? 1 2
shirgall Posted October 31, 2015 Posted October 31, 2015 This is a great video. I've shared it all over the place.
labmath2 Posted November 1, 2015 Posted November 1, 2015 Not an argument. How did you calculate those correlation values? 2 2
labmath2 Posted November 1, 2015 Posted November 1, 2015 None of the coefficient values had confident intervals. One thing that also sticks out is the data for District of Columbia. Just based on that alone i would guess that population density affects murder rates. The data for other places are all presented by state. Does murder rate change significatly between NYS and NYC? If its much higher in NYC then it suggests population density also agfects murder rates. To my knowledge blacks generally live in densely populated areas so this could affect their numbers. This is just one example. I am not sure if you know how to do regression analysis which would rule out other factors. 2 3
dsayers Posted November 1, 2015 Posted November 1, 2015 Apparently Asians, Whites and Hispanics also don't live in the same cities... I don't feel this sufficiently explains (let alone acknowledges) how correlation values were arrived upon. I too was curious about this. I've never worked with data collection/analysis, so perhaps this is considered to be a given in that field. However, if the layperson is to attach any meaning to those numbers, understanding how they're arrive upon would be useful, and was directly asked for. Does murder rate change significatly between NYS and NYC? If its much higher in NYC then it suggests population density also agfects murder rates. I understand your overarching scrutiny, but this particular quote would be an example of "analysis being meh." If rates differed from NYS to NYC, it wouldn't necessarily be explained by population density. 2 1
labmath2 Posted November 1, 2015 Posted November 1, 2015 I understand your overarching scrutiny, but this particular quote would be an example of "analysis being meh." If rates differed from NYS to NYC, it wouldn't necessarily be explained by population density. That is true, there are other factors. Its just an example. There are a variety of reasons that could explain such differences like laws and presence of cops. Its why i asked if they knew how to do regression analysis to try and rule out other factors. They can also do a test of the significance of the correlation coefficient. I am not very statistically savvy, but I am reading about things like that now and its very interesting stuff.
dsayers Posted November 1, 2015 Posted November 1, 2015 How to search for "how to calculate correlation" you'll get many walkthroughs - it's as standard as it gets when it comes to comparing datasets. Thanks. Though I don't think downvoting for ignorance when certainty wasn't claimed is productive. It's possible to correct others and reveal the flaws in their input without snark born from treating scrutiny as if audacious. Not everybody that expresses curiosity is attempting to resist facts. 2 2
dsayers Posted November 2, 2015 Posted November 2, 2015 Apparently Asians, Whites and Hispanics also don't live in the same cities... Snark. Ah yes – never-ending regression analysis! The number one tool used to create bullshit datasets. Hey - let’s see if height and playing basketball in the NBA are correlated - but let’s correct for shoe size, weight, hip flexor strength, length of the femur, hand size and 6532 other variables already correlated with height. Hey what do you know – if you do regressions with enough high correlated things - you get data that height doesn’t matter when it comes to being a successful basketball player. SCIENCE! Snark. You said yourself to be skeptical, but his is just mocking somebody for being skeptical*. A simple explanation of where a mistake was made would suffice. You found it to be sufficient when I asked the exact same question (albeit coupled with a seemingly anonymous downvote). When I see rational discourse, I understand I'm seeing discussion of facts. When I see emotional outbursts, I understand that I'm seeing dogma, personalization of something impersonal, and unprocessed trauma. It's not easy, but when I encounter somebody I think is irrational, I try to remember that I'm dealing with a victim of child abuse. If multiple people indicate that they are not aware of how correlation is calculated in reaction to it being expressed, this is valuable feedback. Unless the person receiving the feedback believes themselves infallible or does NOT want their efforts at communication to be received (performative contradiction). The problem is compounded when you wear a staff badge, essentially setting this as the standard by which discourse is to take place here. Would you rather convince somebody because you've put forth a valid argument, point, or correction or because you could ban them? The greater the power disparity... *Kind of like asking people to provide a description, and then responding to it with "Instead of participating in this thread, I worked on something which will bring more eyeballs to material which demonstrates the negative impact of spanking. At least one kid, somewhere will grow up in a violence free household because of how I've spent that time. How are you spending your time?" as if that at all contributes to the discussion 4 3
labmath2 Posted November 2, 2015 Posted November 2, 2015 Just out of curiosity, did you use best fit plot or an actual correlation coefficient equation to calculate the r value. Do you happen to know the significance (P value) of the correlation coefficient?
Guest Gee Posted November 2, 2015 Posted November 2, 2015 I don't see what the big deal is. All the data is there, simply read through the sources and recreate the result or some facsimile using common data analysis techniques, or, if your unable to do it yourself, just hire someone to do it for you. To have a professional analyst familiarise themselves with the information, analysis the data and produce the corresponding report you want shouldn't cost you more than a few thousand dollars. *hint*
shirgall Posted November 2, 2015 Posted November 2, 2015 Related: http://www.snopes.com/gun-murders-per-100000-residents/
dsayers Posted November 3, 2015 Posted November 3, 2015 I was just watching FDR's recent release "Criticism: Why I Was Wrong About Socialism" and Stef put what I was trying to say a bit more succinctly, so I thought I'd share it here: "If you're good at disproving someone's argument, you don't need to insult their argument ahead of time.The moment you start insulting someone's argument ahead of time, most likely and most often it's because you don't have a good rebuttal." 1 1
Guest Gee Posted November 3, 2015 Posted November 3, 2015 I was just watching FDR's recent release "Criticism: Why I Was Wrong About Socialism" and Stef put what I was trying to say a bit more succinctly, so I thought I'd share it here: "If you're good at disproving someone's argument, you don't need to insult their argument ahead of time.The moment you start insulting someone's argument ahead of time, most likely and most often it's because you don't have a good rebuttal." Have you looked into the correlation between down votes and donor status?
labmath2 Posted November 3, 2015 Posted November 3, 2015 I really hope i get a response to how you got the correlation® values and what the significance(p) of those values are. I can try doing it myself, but i can only get the significance on excell using a regression line analysis function(Linest), colloquially referred to as best fit line. The corelation value from that is different from the correlation value using the correlation function(Correl). I don't know how to get the significance from the correlation function(Correl).
labmath2 Posted November 8, 2015 Posted November 8, 2015 I am trying to do some analysis of the data myself. I have crime stats for over 8000 cities from the FBI website (table 8), but i am not sure if you graphed all the cities in your graphs. For the murder rate, is that total number of murders or some other measure (i.e. murder per 100,000 inhabitants? Are you just googling the racial distribution for the cities or are you using some specific site for the race %? Thanks in advance.
bugzysegal Posted December 4, 2015 Posted December 4, 2015 Have you looked into the correlation between down votes and donor status? What are you suggesting? I am trying to do some analysis of the data myself. I have crime stats for over 8000 cities from the FBI website (table 8), but i am not sure if you graphed all the cities in your graphs. For the murder rate, is that total number of murders or some other measure (i.e. murder per 100,000 inhabitants? Are you just googling the racial distribution for the cities or are you using some specific site for the race %? Thanks in advance. Good luck man.
labmath2 Posted December 5, 2015 Posted December 5, 2015 What are you suggesting? Good luck man. This conversation was eye opening to say the least. Still waiting for a response from Mike.
Guest Gee Posted December 6, 2015 Posted December 6, 2015 What are you suggesting? Good luck man. It is not obvious? 1
shirgall Posted December 8, 2015 Posted December 8, 2015 At 3:12 you comment that background checks are usually not performed at gun shows. The reality is that background checks are usually performed at gun shows because people are buying the most from licensed dealers. The exception is for person-to-person sales where the parties to the transaction encountered one another at a gun show. The statistic used to claim that 25-50% of vendors at gun shows are not licensed is by including those dealers that are there to sell memorabilia, T-shirts, and so on. If you only include gun vendors, the vast majority of gun sales at gun shows are performed by FFLs, and all FFLs have to perform background checks on all purchases. 18 U.S.Code 923(j)
dsayers Posted December 8, 2015 Posted December 8, 2015 For those not in the know, an FFL is a federal firearms license holder. In the US, it's a requisite for the commercial sale of firearms. 1
bugzysegal Posted December 10, 2015 Posted December 10, 2015 This conversation was eye opening to say the least. Still waiting for a response from Mike. In the back and forth with the black woman on Treyvon Martin, Stefan quoted some statistics. They were provocative and alarming to be quite honest. One was something like "A white person is three times more likely to be assaulted by a black person than another white person." Much to my dismay there was no link in the description, only an in video reference to FBI statistics (with no name or year). When I inquired further via e-mail I was told to pull myself up by my statistical bootstraps.
shirgall Posted December 22, 2015 Posted December 22, 2015 Homicides, US per 100,000 population: http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2015/12/a-historical-perspective-on-homicide.php 1
shirgall Posted December 28, 2015 Posted December 28, 2015 “The majority of individuals involved in urban firearm violence are young men with substantial violence involvement preceding the more serious offense of a firearm crime,” the report said. “Our findings suggest that integrating data systems could help these individuals better receive the early, comprehensive help that they need to prevent violence involvement.” http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/25/us/cdc-gun-violence-wilmington.html Another data point in support of peaceful parenting...
shirgall Posted December 30, 2015 Posted December 30, 2015 Possible problems with the National Crime Victimization Survey and other Census Bureau surveys? During a two year investigation of the Census Bureau my whistleblowers and I have: — Caused the Justice Department to look into whether crime data is being falsified and whether the budget for that survey is being misused. That investigation is still ongoing. — Found one verified, massive case of data falsification in the Philadelphia region of Census that could have changed national economic statistics. This resulted in an Inspector General and Congressional investigations. http://nypost.com/2015/12/28/census-vet-weighs-in/
Susana Posted January 5, 2016 Posted January 5, 2016 Obama: How about a rule that says...not everyone needs a gun. Carlin: How about a rule that says...If you have murdered children, bombed weddings, blown up hospitals, and supplied guns to drug cartels and isis....you don't ever talk to me about moral issues ever again. 1
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