Kaesar Sm Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Hi, this documentary is a must see: "The Forecaster" made by austrian documentary filmmakers. I didnt find anything on the FDR-forums on this documentary or on the genius-declared economist its all about, Martin Armstrong. Tell me if I am wrong and that this topic is already being discussed. Its about Martin Armstrong, genious economist which came up with a model to predict worlds economics cycles with also calculating in wars&conflicts, emigrations and of course the stock market. Documentary is 1h 30m long. Here are some links to the documakers youtubechannel and website: Full movie with swedish subtitles - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4eTvuBxO4g4 Q&A with Martin Armstrong - Website - http://forecaster-movie.com/en/the-movie/ Youtube channel - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCfc3tAG1zMJef5FaVkRBfsg IMDB - http://www.imdb.com/title/tt4103404/ I think this is mind blowing how he is correct in most, specially economic situation and the escalating emigration crisis in Europe. What you guys with more experience and expertise say? What about to get Martin Armstrong on the show, interviewed by Stefan? Thanks beforehand your replies, gentlemen of philosophy, cheers! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosencrantz Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Aside from his questionable business behaviour, this summary makes me wonder Armstrong is the developer of the Economic Confidence Model based on business cycles and pi.[3] He is known for claiming to have predicted the crash of 1987 to the very day.[6] Using his theory that boom-bust cycles occur once every 3,141 days, or 8.6 years (the number pi multiplied by 1000). Armstrong claimed in 1999 to have predicted the Nikkei's collapse in 1989 and Russia's financial collapse in 1998.[3][7]According to his model the 1st October 2015 is another peak, and Armstrong suggests there may be a U.S. government shutdown on that day, due to issues getting a deal to extend the debt ceiling.[8] Why was he the first one to discover this alleged cycle? Why didn't he benefit from his foresights? What did he see that others could not? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsayers Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Why didn't he benefit from his foresights? Great point. Even if the claim of predicting a crash "to the day" was accurate, it's not proof of skill. One could not skillfully predict such a thing because an economy is the sum of transactions between hundreds of millions of people. If it cannot be skillfully predicted, then what is to gain by citing it as an accolade? It would be like a lottery winner claiming to be a master statistician for guessing something right that one time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ribuck Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 According to his model the 1st October 2015 is another peak The S&P500 and NASDAQ have been rising continually since 1st October 2015, which was near the bottom of a trough, so he couldn't have been more wrong on that one. That's enough counter-evidence that I don't feel the need to investigate his numerology further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmptyMellon Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Did any of you actually watched the movie or read his blogs or just watched the 10 minute interview...and therefore...conclusions? Do any of you actually have an understanding of how he provides the information on the dates and market movements? The S&P500 and NASDAQ have been rising continually since 1st October 2015, which was near the bottom of a trough, so he couldn't have been more wrong on that one. That's enough counter-evidence that I don't feel the need to investigate his numerology further. 2015.75 was the peak in government not S&P500 and NASDAQ. Great point. Even if the claim of predicting a crash "to the day" was accurate, it's not proof of skill. One could not skillfully predict such a thing because an economy is the sum of transactions between hundreds of millions of people. If it cannot be skillfully predicted, then what is to gain by citing it as an accolade? It would be like a lottery winner claiming to be a master statistician for guessing something right that one time. Calling Martin Armstrong a numerologist and referring to his global politico-economic analysis as a "skill" is like calling Stefan a convincing "cult leader". Somehow, I don't think Mises would interview a "lottery winner". Aside from his questionable business behaviour, this summary makes me wonder Why was he the first one to discover this alleged cycle? Why didn't he benefit from his foresights? What did he see that others could not? If your definition of "questionable business behavior" is 'the unwillingness to give up his intellectual property (model and code) to the US government and being jailed without due process for 11 years', then I guess you are right. Please, at least spend a little time to watch a few of the movie trailers for The Forecaster to have an idea what this man is about, before you make conclusions: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EuanM Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The link to the documentary doesn't work for me. Does anybody have it on another feed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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