Where is the predicted economic collapse?

[Ouissellat]

Many years ago Stef predicted that the current economic system would fall. "There will be no recovery".

Can someone help me understand how things are still continuing as there were?

[Mister Mister]

  The government lies about numbers, especially unemployment.  The debt has risen astronomically in the last 8 years, and many of the dollars printed by the Fed have gone overseas.  So the inflation and poverty have just been delayed and outsourced for the time being.  See Stef's talks with Peter Schiff.

[ProfessionalTeabagger]

It's a good question. The no recovery part seems to have come true. I think the west has managed to get a few new credit cards. How long can it avoid collapse when it's trillions in debt? 

[NotDarkYet]

I would not put my money on a 'collapse'.

 

I'd put my money on increasing burden for working people, less ability to save, longer working hours, more expensive government, growing parasite class - - - generation after generation after generation.

[sb23rd]

Do not credit Stefan as the originator of said prediction but as someone following the precepts of reality and making a rational argument which has been espoused before by people of similar intellectual caliber. Apologies for the criticism it is not meant in disdain but your question is framed in a manner that suggests at Stefan's credibility. 

 

As pointed out the bursting of the bubble has been deferred to some future point. The fed being the captured or capturer institution of the state particularly since the gold standard took early retirement pretty much does what it wants. After all the fed is its own police. The lapdog media parrots along to delight of the leftist and Chicago school economist, your typical central planners.

[pretzelogik]

We may be in the middle of the collapse depending what a "collapse" is actually. 

 

The debt (and money for that matter) are infinite.  For practical purposes, there is no difference between one trillion and ten trillion.  It will take a while to run out of exponents. 

 

There is still a phenomenal amount of excess capacity and labor in the system as it is, government boondoggles, the military., corporate inefficiency.  Unemployed people are necessary for the corporate oligarchs as leverage to suppress wage increases, so unemployment will be a fixture.

 

Not Dark Yet offered a realistic summation in that the noose of virtual "debt" will continue to tighten around the necks of the producers so they have less and less capacity to ever escape the work mill.

 

As long as agri-business can continue to increase the ratio of feeders to providers of feed, the debt figures are meaningless and can be managed the way they have been for some time, with tricks of accounting.  If people get wise to the fact they have accrued nothing when they attempt to liquidate their "savings" for actual stuff and there is potential for unrest, they can invent another war, reset the economy and perhaps demolish some sacred structures to make room for malls in the process.

[Matthew Ed Moran]

I don't see how there has been a recovery. In 2015 2/3 of the stock market was down (see most recent Jim Rogers interviews). I heard in the most recent jobs report, 80% of the jobs created were part time (see the most recent Peter Schiff appearance on the Tom Woods show). 

 

The economic systems of countries are failing in europe, in asia, and in america. All the central banks are creating money at unprecedented rates. Jim Rogers is apparently holding onto a lot of US dollars because he thinks as turmoil increases in the next year, people will flock to what they think is a safe haven. Schiff has been preferring gold. I'm not sure who is right, but they were both on top of the 2008 crisis, and they both agree that the future is bleak in terms of economic recovery.

 

Also, JP Morgan has reported a prediction of a 1/3 chance of recession this year, 2/3 next year, and 100% chance in three years of another recession. The economic system collapsed a long time ago, and Stefan has been right to point out that there has not been a resurgence in any statist countries. They are all crippling under their own weight of highly interventionist policies. Who is to say when they will be replaced, but until a hacksaw is taken to governments and economic systems as they currently exist worldwide, there will not be any recovery, just more stagnation and repeated financial crisis that has been the trend since the '70s. The level of debt that countries like America, China, Japan, and European countries are holding is unprecedented historically as far as I know, and these debts represent a boulder sitting on the back of future productivity.

[Copper_Heart]

I think part of the problem may be that there is part of industry that is not reflected in GDP. Like part that does not necessarily come to the end consumer! The problem of Austrians is that they systematically fail to predict the right time of collapse, but always are right in long term. Why? Because they lack data and if GDP was every thing there is about that then they would be right, but there are something that are not counted by GDP.

 

I heard about it on Tom Woods show. Basically now there is a govt statistics out there that do count this data out.

 

I know it is an oxymoron, but for austrians reality lags behind prediction. This value explains why. It takes an account trade that corporations do among themselves that do not directly affect consumer.

 

Will try to find it at some point. Listened to it not so long before.

[Donnadogsoth]

  The government lies about numbers, especially unemployment.  The debt has risen astronomically in the last 8 years, and many of the dollars printed by the Fed have gone overseas.  So the inflation and poverty have just been delayed and outsourced for the time being.  See Stef's talks with Peter Schiff.

 

That's how they got me to vote for Lyndon LaRouche!

[Matthew Ed Moran]

Sorry for the double post, but I suggest the first ten minutes of this video. (The whole video is worth watching in my opinion)

 

The difficulty in answering your post is that I'm not sure which claim of Stef's you're particularly referring to. There is the "there will be no recovery" series, which focuses a lot on the insane level of debts many countries are holding, most of which being American. Then there is also the separate but linked issue of inflation, which is contingent on the fact that money printing causes inflation, and that debt can be monetized (and is being monetized) to lessen the debt, and increase inflation. This is a trick of central banks to take out massive amounts of debt, and never have to hard default on it by raising taxes or cutting spending and regulation drastically. 

 

The current situation in America, is that the stock market had net gains in 2015, while 2/3 were of individual stocks were down for the year. That means people are concentrating massively into a small number of stocks, I would assume as a hedge against risk (but I'm no expert, I recommend you check out Jim Rogers and Peter Schiff for yourself). Gold has been up the last 14 of 18 years at least, which is another indicator of inflation. 

 

I have a question for anyone. When the Federal Reserve exports inflation by selling treasuries to other central banks, what are they getting in return? Is it physical goods? 

[Guest Gee]

Many years ago Stef predicted that the current economic system would fall. "There will be no recovery".

Can someone help me understand how things are still continuing as there were?

 

Its going to continue until the bubble can not longer be sustained. The bubble can no longer be sustained when there is no more wealth that can be stolen from the populous to use to inflate it. The amount of money used to keep it inflated is a function of the size and productivity of the productive peoples (amount stolen through direct tax etc) and the size of the welfare state which is used to keep inflating the bubble by inflating the currency and debt. The productivity of the productive isn't increasing, the size of the productive is decreasing thus the only way to keep the bubble from popping is to import new welfare depends. The average IQ of welfare users is 90, so you need to import low IQ people, thus #RapefugeesWelcome!

 

Migrants aren't here to produce, they are here to keep up the ability of the state to inflate currency and debt and thus the bubble.