Mattw Posted May 21, 2016 Posted May 21, 2016 I run a blog on emerging risks which is a little like tracking Black Swans. You can in fact see Black Swans coming, but you have to pay attention. Mostly I just post article excerpts and sometimes provide commentary. Hopefully, you find this stuff interesting. Did Hyman Minsky find the secret behind financial crashes? - BBC News - http://bbc.in/1khvTlz The secret is this: Stability is destabilizing. What happens to a forest when firemen put out all the fires? Given that the world have been doing everything possible to keep everything stable, the natural result is another financial crisis coming soon. The article excerpt below is about the coming financial crisis. A couple of weeks ago, hedge fund legend Stanley Druckenmiller gave an important talk arguing that the crisis is about to hit and investors should liquidate their equity holdings. He and others who have similar views have been the subject of much debate among economists — more of it about the timing of the next global and U.S. downturn and not so much about whether it will come. ... The fundamental problem is most countries are experiencing little or no growth as a result of excessive government spending (particularly on transfer payments), and destructive regulations and tax policies. The unwillingness of the politicians (and their voters) to cut back on spending and regulation has led to an explosion of government debt, which is not sustainable at current levels of economic growth. This, in turn, is fueling a demand for more government spending (more free stuff) and thus more debt. What we are seeing at the moment is a slow-motion crisis where real incomes in a number of countries are stagnant or dropping because of the fall in commodity prices and the rising cost of debt service. ... RICHARD RAHN: The next financial crisis - Washington Times - http://bit.ly/1Rg2ukO Related: China’s debt bubble is getting only more dangerous - The Washington Post - http://wapo.st/1Rg3qpk This is how the next financial crisis will spread around the world economy | Voices | The Independent - http://ind.pn/1Rg3GV3 China's Economy Is Past the Point of No Return | The National Interest - http://bit.ly/1Rg3Pba World faces 'lost year' as policymakers sleepwalk towards fresh crisis, warns IMF - http://bit.ly/1Rg4gSX Timing a financial crisis is impossible, but the chatter about such an event is increasing. We are in this mess because of government policies that promote stability. And we will remain in this situation forever, or until we experience a depression. We have joined Japan sitting on the edge of a cliff.
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