Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

[rainlead]

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is about an IARPA program which crowd-sourced political forecasting to volunteers. The book studies the methodologies that the absolute best forecasters used to generate such accurate predictions so consistently. Biases, open-mindedness, the scientific method, team dynamics, and things like that are discussed in this book. I found it to be very enlightening and dense with valuable information. It covers excellent practices of analysis including many of the things which I think are necessary for wisdom in general. Since it covers the IARPA crowd-sourcing experiment, the information in the book is supported by scientific evidence.

 

Have any of you read it? What are your thoughts on it?

 

Here's a link:

http://www.audible.com/pd/Business/Superforecasting-Audiobook/B0131RM7OK

[NotDarkYet]

I heard about this on Freakonomics.  It looks interesting.

 

It also reminds me how much a hate Freakonomics' mealy-mouthed economic point-of-voiew.  State loving academic lapdogs such as themselves have no principles, so they develop a fetish for data as a way to avoid uncomfortable truths.  

[rosencrantz]

Did they predict the nomination of Trump one year ago?

[percentient]

I trust Scott Alexander's (ostensibly uppity) review http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/02/04/book-review-superforecasting/, and by the way he has been pretty good at prediction himself.