aviet Posted June 5, 2016 Posted June 5, 2016 How do you think this will pan out over the next 100 years?Looks like a perfect opportunity to take out a short on the human race. 1 1
RichardY Posted June 5, 2016 Posted June 5, 2016 I would imagine the population will continue to increase, unless there is some major natural or man made catastrophe. I think tomato yields in The Netherlands are up to 400 tons per acre compare that with a yield of 10 tons in some other areas of the world. Food shouldn't be a problem unless its an Idiocracy scenario. Aesthetically though not really to my liking, with people stacked on top of each other like the Movie Blade Runner. Feels Claustrophobic to me in some areas of the UK. Beaches are pretty crowded too in some areas of Europe, should dynamite a few cliffs perhaps. Short on the human race sounds a little sinister, but not that much (I'd vote your post up but out on quota for the day). More specific demographic data might be better, I have heard the population of the Czech Republic has been stable for a while (Paul Joseph Watson, Infowars guy), so maybe it'll level off.
NocPat Posted June 5, 2016 Posted June 5, 2016 I don't think overpopulation issues based on area will ever be an issue. There is plenty of room in the world for people to live, and technology might advance to accommodate living in the oceans/sky/underground. I think since most writers and students of population live in large cities, they have a bias to assume that the whole world is as densely populated as their environment. I think world population will continue to rise at the current fast rate for thousands of years. There 3 possibilities I see that could reverse or slow the population growth would be: Natural disaster wiping out a massive amount of the population (meteor/plague/earth), state based violence causing genocide (war/nukes/extermination), or lack of resources to sustain the massive population.
fer Posted June 5, 2016 Posted June 5, 2016 World fertility rate is around 2.3 which is barely above replacement rate (2.1), and keeps declining. Overpopulation is not even a concern.
shirgall Posted June 6, 2016 Posted June 6, 2016 World fertility rate is around 2.3 which is barely above replacement rate (2.1), and keeps declining. Overpopulation is not even a concern. The real concern is the distribution of fertility rate over IQ and political system. Smart people in socialist hellholes reproduce the least. 2
WorBlux Posted June 6, 2016 Posted June 6, 2016 How do you think this will pan out over the next 100 years? Looks like a perfect opportunity to take out a short on the human race. http://tbb.bio.uu.nl/rdb/books/mpd.pdf It's a logistic growth rate, not an exponential, poised to find a new equilibrium in the next few hundred years. Additionally a lot of recent population growth has been fueled by changes in that age distribution (increase of lifespan) rather than a large increase in the fertile population (women aged 20-35). http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/06/the-shifting-shape-of-age-around-the-world/373638/ Also fertility is decreasing, worldwide and thus the population of fertile women is definitely increasing at a decreasing rate (not exponentially)
aviet Posted June 6, 2016 Author Posted June 6, 2016 The real concern is the distribution of fertility rate over IQ and political system. Smart people in socialist hellholes reproduce the least. It's a logistic growth rate, not an exponential, poised to find a new equilibrium in the next few hundred years. Additionally a lot of recent population growth has been fueled by changes in that age distribution (increase of lifespan) rather than a large increase in the fertile population (women aged 20-35). Also fertility is decreasing, worldwide and thus the population of fertile women is definitely increasing at a decreasing rate (not exponentially) shirgall has elaborated my worst fears better than I had assembled them in my own thoughts. It would be interesting to see a population projection graph with IQ bands. Needless to say the sub-80 and sub-70 categories are growing more than any other band. As The West wanes under Marxism and degenerate cultural influences, fertility rates are heading to 1.0. This in itself is not catastrophic, what is - is the vast population growth rates in the undeveloped world with 50, 60, 70% of the population considered as mentally retarded in conjunction with the former. Countries like Niger have fertility rates over 7.0 with an average age of 15. Just imagine what it would be like living in the West with an average age of 15. Development would be incredibly difficult. Many countries have grown by about 600% in 50 year or so; it took Britain 200 years to do the same; and the countries that are growing by such rates show no signs of stopping, are largely immune to development and are propped up by The West. Africa in particular is incredibly unstable. The continent is largely propped up by food aid, medical aid, foreign investment and huge grants to governments (Ethiopia get about 50-60% of its govt. budget in aid), which has enabled their exponential population growth, which has had little development in conjunction. As Europe wanes, it seems likely that more and more Africans will attempt to get into Europe. I can see it reaching millions per year in my life time. I think such movements would be debilitating and irreversible. I'm not sure what will happen in the coming decades, but if largely European moral leadership that has ended slavery and various other abuses and American military dominance, which can be criticised, but has been a curb on adventurism and expansionism fails, I think the world will plunge into famine, sectarian violence and conquest, with a depressed Europe and the Anglosphere facing mass immigration as a result. The result being there will be nowhere for anyone to run to We know what happened in Europe in the first half of the 20th century. Now the whole world has those capabilities, with vast populations with sub-80 and sub-70 average IQs. The UN says the global population is heading to 11 billion by 2011 and rising. I think it is more likely to be 1 billion.
RichardY Posted June 6, 2016 Posted June 6, 2016 Yeah if I were an African sitting in some shit hole shack next to a dump site and I had a TV or Phone and I saw all those Syrian Refugees getting into Europe I'd be going to and storming the barricades shouting MONEY!!!! and what has begun as a "trickle" has quickly escalated into a flood and where the Rams go the rest of the sheep follow. Something major has got to happen somewhere right? Maybe the Leaders in China and Russia are having a field day with this, lending money screw up the economy and society pick up the pieces. I wonder if they will stop lending and crash the Dollar and EURO I hope they do, before Europe or the USA die from an overdose of "easy money". I think there is some Chinese Proverb about Leisure being someone's doom can't remember the rest, should probably bare that advice in mind.
aviet Posted June 6, 2016 Author Posted June 6, 2016 Something major has got to happen somewhere right? It is getting closer: http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/06/06/detain-illegal-migrants-in-island-camps-says-austrian-foreign-minister/ I have been very pleased with how Macedonia, Austria and Hungary have dealt with it. It seems to me that Austria in particular has been acting in liaison with other countries to shut the route. It's just the old Euro states that can't bare to be seen as racist for turning back a bunch of people who stopped being refugees once they entered Turkey, if they ever were a refugee in the first place. Last year I was in Serbia, Bulgaria, Greece, Slovenia and Croatia during the crisis. The only time I saw any migrants it was a bunch of about 20 very sharply dressed-men who I assumed were from Pakistan. One sat next to me (on the train) and began Facebook messaging his friends in Pakistan on his very expensive looking mobile phone. He had been sent back by Macedonia. When I was in Serbia, there was some hoopla about Hungary putting in their border fence. The Serbian PM and pres., both former ultra-nationalist who essentially said they want to get rid of all Croats and Bosnians in the 90s to make a Greater Serbia, have now become a pair of dupes pandering to the EU. They were trying to make themselves look liberal and loving by showing how good they were by letting all the migrants through. But when Slovenia and Macedonia started putting up their own fences, Serbia quickly did a 180, realising they were going to get stuck with a bunch of migrants. Slovenia was likewise criticising Hungary's fence when they put it up, but on the day I arrived in Slovenia, they were putting up fences bought from Hungary and I was interrogated by police for about 20 minutes because they thought I was a migrant. I think this is indicative of how most people are operating. Many refuse to block migrants as they don't want to be seen as racist etc., but when they get left with the situation, they quickly shift. Even Sweden has largely reversed their ridiculous civilisation-ending virtue posturing. In my opinion this is what needs to be done: - A clear message needs to be sent that migrants will not be specifically accepted - All that those that do manage to get in will be given is a space in a tent, food and water and access to sanition; with no path to citizenship - Those who come in from safe states will be incarcerated and deported on the earliest possible date - Vessels carrying illegals turned back, rather than brought in - UN refugee charter needs to be re-written If these people knew the best they were going to get is a camp the same as in Turkey if they are a refugee or deportation, many fewer would come. The situation is a complete farce and our politicians are too scared to say so. This is what Singapore does and the whole world is not screaming about that, only that the Anglosphere and Europe does not want to take economic migrants. They stopped accepting refugees after a bad experience in the 70s, which is nothing compared to what Europe is being asked to endure.
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