So how big of a bitch will the EU be about Brexit?

[Livemike]

The big question that determines the economic effect on Britain of the Brexit is how big a bitch the EU will be towards it.  If the EU decides to be calm, rational and to arrange the trade deal that will most benefit it's remaining members then Brexit won't cause major harm to Britain or the EU.  If they attempt to punish Britain for it's desire to leave them both Europe and England will be significantly harmed. The greater the degree of malice and spite the greater the harm.  So EU leaders, will they be calm and sane, basically reasonable but a little bitchy, basically bitchy but with some reason or sugar-in-your-ex's-tank spiteful?

[Thus_Spake_the_Nightspirit]

I honestly don't think they will actually leave.

[rosencrantz]

I also don't think that Britain will leave. It seems that the pro Brexit people have no plan what to do next now that they have won. This is why Johnson and Farage stepped back. They don't want to be connected with a possible failure of the negotatioans. 

[ProfessionalTeabagger]

I also don't think that Britain will leave. It seems that the pro Brexit people have no plan what to do next now that they have won. This is why Johnson and Farage stepped back. They don't want to be connected with a possible failure of the negotatioans. 

 

You don't know that's why Johnson and Farage stepped back. You're just asserting that without any proof. The plan is simple. You invoke the articles that for leaving and then leave. 

[rosencrantz]

It's called making an educated guess. People act in their self interest. Why should Farage and Johnson bind themselves to a sinking ship when they can get out before it goes under for real?

[EuanM]

It's a good question. I think there is a genuine disagreement in the EU about the best way to handle the situation. The mad ideologues will want to make an example of the UK in order to avoid a domino effect, but there will be more rational voices as well who understand that a trade war would be disastrous (particularly now). It'll be interesting how things play out, but my guess is that they won't be to silly during the negotiations, as there are two many vested interests that would be potentially damaged.

 

 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a4fd5b7c-41c0-11e6-b22f-79eb4891c97d.html#axzz4EeC7hgHS

 

http://www.euractiv.com/section/future-eu/news/why-merkel-doesn-t-support-juncker-for-commission-president/

 

I believe part of the reason that Merkel is trying to oust Juncher is that he is very ideological in his European integrationism and wants to take a harder line on the UK in negotiations. 

[J.L.W]

I think other explanations of Farage's resignation are more likely. For instance, he has likely been getting death threats and such and he did cancel the before the referendum BBC program to have dinner with his son.

 

You can only be as intense and as much of a fighter as Farage for so long... His psychology has shown no tendency to shrink away from challenge.

 

Also, I tend to believe politics happens on levels far more secret than we know... He may know something or have planned something that we are not in on... For instance... As an example but not saying this is the case, he could want to protect his family from an incoming economic crash. I really do hate to say this since I support Farage very strongly, but a more 'moderate' UKIP leader could wipe the floor with the voting considering Labour is turning in on itself. (I'm hoping for Owen Smith personally there so UKIP will get more of the vote!) Although I would prefer Corbyn for opposition leader and the next General election is a long way off.

 

The way insurgencies and the like seem to happen more recently is without any violence. I think that the fact that David Davis is on the Brexit team was obviously foisted on the establishment by someone of significant power. But May herself will do everything to stop Brexit... As she has already tried with whatever she said with Sturgeon. But like Clinton, the establishment simply seems to be running out of friends after all this time, so even if she tosses and turns it might still happen!

 

Although seriously, it is mathematically impossible for the European Union to continue bankrupt for so long without some significant imperialism and stealing of resources. I think it will collapse soon ish possibly...

 

How is Italy going to be solved? They have a referendum soon... How will a Trump POTUS effect things? Will Deutsche bank go bankrupt? Will crude prices fall again? These are the questions that need to be answered in order to really understand and predict what will happen with Brexit.

[aviet]

I really do hate to say this since I support Farage very strongly, but a more 'moderate' UKIP leader could wipe the floor with the voting considering Labour is turning in on itself. 

 

 

Polls seem to suggest a slight increase in UKIP support since 23 June. Following in Nigel's footsteps will be difficult, but I likewise think Steven Woolfe could be very damaging for Labour. He was formerly in the Labour party, yet is more of an economic liberal, has actually had a real job, lived on what was one of the most notorious estates, pulled himself up from nothing to be succsesful and that he is 1/4 English, 1/4 Irish, 1/4 Jewish and 1/4 black American will be a serious blow for the Guardianistas who refuse to look at any real data on UKIP and instead inject their 'white British people are the most vile people in the world' bent into every issue. He's a near inversion of the over-educated, deluded Labour MPs who have never faced the market and are incessantly parachuted into constituencies they have no connection and nothing in common with. Ed Milliband in Doncaster, Tristram Hunt in Stoke.

 

 

 

I'm hoping for Owen Smith personally there so UKIP will get more of the vote!) Although I would prefer Corbyn for opposition leader and the next General election is a long way off.

 

 

It seems Corbyn will actually do better. I'm hoping he can hang on for some time and somehow get dislodged a few months before the 2020 GE. I don't think anything would tank Labour harder. The other option of a Labour split would also be good. The epic decline of Labour has been one of the few good things to happen in the last few years.

[J.L.W]

We won't survive until 2020 without massive societal change so predicting that far into the future is a fools errand IMO. Six months top.

 

Apart from that I agree with your post... Isn't it sad that the Guardian crew has us talking about race now? The concept is not one that has any relevance to me most of the time!

[aviet]

We won't survive until 2020 without massive societal change so predicting that far into the future is a fools errand IMO. Six months top.

 

Apart from that I agree with your post... Isn't it sad that the Guardian crew has us talking about race now? The concept is not one that has any relevance to me most of the time!

I was thinking 6 months back in 2008, but now I realise it can go on for a long time. Look how long the USSR lasted, the Ottoman empire etc. In the US, you have cities that are more violent than almost all of the most violent countries in the world. There is still some level of function in the most corrupt societies like Guatemala and Zimbabwe.

 

When cracks appear, force will be placed against them. That is unless there is a deliberate collapse. But there are far to many wealthy and influential people who have an interest in not collapsing. They would loose pretty much everything and go to living in some bunker.

[Troubador]

There is a game plan following Brexit, the idea is to begin negotiations around the world re: our trading relations. Once we are ready to pull the trigger on those treaties the moment we actually leave we are in a stronger position to negotiate with the E.U. We aim to be be in a position that what the E.U. Decides to do is no big factor either way.

 

Basically if we wait to negotiate with the E.U. until we are in a position to say "do whatever you like, we have a sound set of treaties ready to go." Then all the E.U. will be doing is cutting off it's nose to spite it's face, they will follow what is in our interest.

 

The German trade minister has come out to say the doom and gloom he threatened before the vote was basically what George Osborn instructed him to say. The German car industry lobby is not going to tolerate trade tariffs as the U.K. Market is one of its biggest.

 

France has intimated free trade could be negotiated without free movement of people, with a view to re-examining the issue further down the line.

 

My only lingering fear is that bremainers and the media are so sore about losing they want to erode confidence in the U.K. Economy so they can have their "I told you so moment" and market confidence is as much psychology as anything else I could see this happening.

 

However to end on a high note I'd like to thank New Zealand as they have recently offered to loan us some of their top international trade negotiators with decades of experience (we obviously don't having relied on Europe!). It is humbling and very much appreciated to be welcomed back into the international community as a sovereign nation once again by a friendly nation to which we have always had such strong ties.

[luxfelix]

There is a game plan following Brexit, the idea is to begin negotiations around the world re: our trading relations. Once we are ready to pull the trigger on those treaties the moment we actually leave we are in a stronger position to negotiate with the E.U. We aim to be be in a position that what the E.U. Decides to do is no big factor either way.

 

Basically if we wait to negotiate with the E.U. until we are in a position to say "do whatever you like, we have a sound set of treaties ready to go." Then all the E.U. will be doing is cutting off it's nose to spite it's face, they will follow what is in our interest.

 

The German trade minister has come out to say the doom and gloom he threatened before the vote was basically what George Osborn instructed him to say. The German car industry lobby is not going to tolerate trade tariffs as the U.K. Market is one of its biggest.

 

France has intimated free trade could be negotiated without free movement of people, with a view to re-examining the issue further down the line.

 

My only lingering fear is that bremainers and the media are so sore about losing they want to erode confidence in the U.K. Economy so they can have their "I told you so moment" and market confidence is as much psychology as anything else I could see this happening.

 

However to end on a high note I'd like to thank New Zealand as they have recently offered to loan us some of their top international trade negotiators with decades of experience (we obviously don't having relied on Europe!). It is humbling and very much appreciated to be welcomed back into the international community as a sovereign nation once again by a friendly nation to which we have always had such strong ties.

 

Please tell me they'll send Gandalf too! 

 

Are there plans to strengthen ties with the previous commonwealth?