The Return to K

[aviet]

When resources become abundant and situations arise in which people can indulge, laze, sponge and manipulate their way through life, the production of resources per capita will reach such levels as to make such behaviour financially unfeasible and socially unacceptable. This is a cycle outlined here.

If you were to mark on a graph the movement between R and K, I would estimate that we are now more or less half-way between peak-R and peak-K. What is changing is the distribution between people who will conserve and people who will splurge. We are in a very similar position to where we were last time there was an R to K corssover, which was in the window of 1830 in England and Wales.

Some charts:

1a) Poor Law relief in England and Wales - this was money collected by force by the Church of England for paupers

 

 

Poor law for one parish:

1b) UK total benefit spending, including the welfare budget and the total spending on pensions (almost all unfunded)

 

2a) Illegitimate births in England



From one parish:



2b) Percentage of live births outside marriage in the UK:



This statistic is now in decline in the US.

3) UK debt to GDP

 

4) US private debt (could not find UK)



Observation: last time round (in England and Wales) I would say the peak of K-selective leaning was reached in ~1875, but this time round I think the peak of Y-selective leaning was in ~2010. A possible explanation is that the restraint that created The vast wealth of The British Empire took a long time to spendthrift away; while the peak Y in around 2010 will quickly follow a crossover as access to resources has been so reduced to mean that there is no option but to go K. Another explanation is that the peak Y would have occurred earlier if it had not been for the welfare state. I think both are/were at play.

5)

1830-: Movement against aristocrat landlordism
2016-: Movement against globalism

6)

1830-: Movement for individualism: Edward Miall, Samuel Roberts, Ralph Waldo Emerson, John Stuart Mill, Herbert Spencer, Edward Baines, Thoreau...
2016-: Movement for individualism: Stefan Molyneux, Paul Joseph Watson, Lauren Southern, Alex Jones, Nigel Farage, Ron Paul, James Woods, Ben Shapiro

7)

1830-: Movement against elite newspaper oligarchy (see)
2016-: Movement against elite media conglomerate oligarchy

8) Political landscape


The liberal party was originally laissez-faire - libertarian; and the Conservatives in a similar vein to how they are today. Marxist leanings only came on the scene in the 1890s and rapidly shifted to big government and welfare. The crossover to Y voting happened in the 1920s and eventually led to a top income tax rate of 99.25% in WWII, which continued at 90% until 1971, when it was dropped to 75%. In 1988 it was reduced to 40%.

In 2016, polling has about 60% favouring 'right' parties and 40% favouring 'left' parties.

[Nima]

Very interesting, thanks!