Freedomain Posted March 5, 2017 Posted March 5, 2017 With the French Presidential election upcoming, the topic of Immigration and the impact of the European Migrant Crisis remains an incredibly important campaign issue. On July 17th, 2016, French Prime Minister Manuel Valls made a startling claim: "Terrorism will be a part of our daily lives for a long time. Let's be clear: Times have changed.“ Is terrorism, violence and economic migration something the French people will truly accept as the new normal?On April 23rd, 2017, France will hold their Presidential election featuring National Front leader Marine Le Pen, Independent Candidate Emmanuel Macron, the Socialist Party’s Benoit Hamon, Left Party’s Jean-Luc Melenchon and Conservative candidate Francois Fillon. What future will the French people choose? Sources Population of Francehttp://www.insee.fr/fr/publications-et-services/default.asp?page=abonnements/dossiers_actualite/conference-presse-recensement-14-janvier-2014.htmhttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-20/frances-muslim-demographic-futureForeign Born Populationhttps://data.oecd.org/migration/foreign-born-population.htm#indicator-chartPopulation Projectionshttp://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database?node_code=projAnnual Births and Parent Nationalityhttps://www.ined.fr/fichier/s_rubrique/170/irsocsd20151_t37ter.fr.xlshttps://www.ined.fr/fichier/s_rubrique/170/irsocsd20151_t37.fr.xlshttps://www.ined.fr/en/everything_about_population/data/france/births-fertility/births_nationality_parents/#r167Asylum Applications by Countryhttp://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/product?code=migr_asyctz http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/product?code=migr_asyappctzahttp://www.asylumineurope.org/reports/country/france/statistics#footnote3_w0gpmhoFertility Rates by Religion http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/02/27/muslims-and-islam-key-findings-in-the-u-s-and-around-the-world/Unemploymenthttps://data.oecd.org/migration/native-born-unemployment.htm#indicator-charthttps://data.oecd.org/migration/foreign-born-unemployment.htm#indicator-chartLabor Participationhttps://data.oecd.org/migration/native-born-participation-rates.htm#indicator-charthttps://data.oecd.org/migration/foreign-born-participation-rates.htm#indicator-chartRadicalizationhttp://en.rfi.fr/france/20160911-there-will-be-new-attacks-there-will-be-innocent-victims-vallshttp://www.france24.com/en/20160913-france-deradicalisation-centre-islamist-threat-jihadism-terrorismhttp://www.lejdd.fr/Societe/Les-chiffres-secrets-de-la-radicalisation-islamique-815668http://m.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11710314http://www.leparisien.fr/faits-divers/radicalisation-la-police-n-est-pas-epargnee-09-03-2016-5610617.phphttps://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/frances-deradicalization-centers-are-a-total-fiasco-lawmakers-say/2017/02/24/218a8072-fa97-11e6-aa1e-5f735ee31334_story.html?utm_term=.166190f369b2Prison Population in Francehttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11352268/What-is-going-wrong-in-Frances-prisons.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/28/AR2008042802560.html?sid=ST2008042802857Netherlands Crime Informationhttps://www.cbs.nl/-/media/_pdf/2016/47/ji2016s_web.pdfFrance Car Burningshttp://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/societe/fait-divers/nuit-du-nouvel-an-2016-forte-baisse-des-violences-urbaines_1749971.htmlhttp://www.lepoint.fr/societe/valls-choque-par-les-40-000-voitures-brulees-chaque-annee-31-12-2012-1607239_23.phphttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/02/almost-1000-cars-torched-around-france-new-years-eve-government/European Union Terrorist Attackshttps://www.europol.europa.eu/activities-services/main-reports/european-union-terrorism-situation-and-trend-report-te-sat-2016Support for Suicide Bombinghttps://web.archive.org/web/20150429155650/http://www.pewresearch.org/files/old-assets/pdf/muslim-americans.pdf#page=60http://www.dw.com/en/poll-one-in-four-french-muslims-backs-burqa/a-19560262Positive Attitude Towards ISIShttps://www.rt.com/news/181076-isis-islam-militans-france/Survey of French Jews on Rising Anti-Semitismhttp://www.lemonde.fr/societe/article/2016/01/15/47-des-hommes-juifs-declarent-avoir-deja-subi-une-agression-antisemite_4848059_3224.htmlhttp://www.thelocal.fr/20160531/french-jews-flee-paris-suburbs-over-rising-anti-semitismFrench AttitudesMosque Construction: http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2016/04/28/01016-20160428ARTFIG00357-islam-une-image-degradee-en-france-et-en-allemagne.phpThreat to National Identity: http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2016/04/28/01016-20160428ARTFIG00357-islam-une-image-degradee-en-france-et-en-allemagne.phpHeadscarf and Burkini: http://www.lepoint.fr/societe/deux-francais-sur-trois-opposes-au-burkini-25-08-2016-2063657_23.phpEuropean Attitudeshttp://www.pewglobal.org/2016/07/11/negative-views-of-minorities-refugees-common-in-eu/https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/what-do-europeans-think-about-muslim-immigrationDemographic Changes in Francehttp://gulfnews.com/houari-boumedienne-guardian-of-freedom-1.40394https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_Francehttps://books.google.co.uk/books?id=LqCYTEN7yuwC&pg=PA16https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=thP_UKhPbP0C&pg=PA39http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3240295/Imam-tells-Muslim-migrants-breed-children-Europeans-conquer-countries-vows-trample-underfoot-Allah-willing.htmlhttp://www.infowars.com/top-iman-muslim-migrants-should-breed-with-europeans-to-conquer-their-countrieshttps://www.comp.leeds.ac.uk/nora/html/4-100.html
DaveR Posted March 6, 2017 Posted March 6, 2017 Ironically (perhaps?), despite a lot of people objecting to the official, nationwide collection of racial data due to the usual claims of it being 'something they would do in apartheid south africa' or somesuch, i believe it is actually pro-immigrant groups wanting the collection in France, due to suspicions of non-whites being kept out of jobs, under-represented, etc etc. Certainly, after decades of sporadic, patchy 'ethnic monitioring' here in the UK, a large part of the reason for the collection of such comprehensive ethnic/racial data here since the 1990s (UK government now seems to produce racial stats for anything & everything - though oddly they stopped releasing data on births by race of baby 3 years back) is due to constant claims of discrimination by the BME lobby. There are other yardsticks demographers use to go by - potential for sickle cell issues is one i've seen. Not sure how much to read into it. https://bloodyshovel.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/73akbau.png?w=630 Another way to look at the youth demographic would be school/class photos. For comparison. in 2014. the last year available, 65% of babies born in England were 'white, british' & about 75% white overall, white British falling about 1% a year quite consistently, white overall falling quite slowly in recent years due to eastern euro migrants. A similar rate is recorded in the annual schools census, with about 70% of pupils British (87% in 1997) and 76% white overall (89% in 1997) by 2016. Germany also has a similar rate to Englands 35% births of immigrant stock... http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/09/21/germany-40-percent-migrant-background/...though again, I would imagine at least 10% of those are to white immigrants. Either way, id be surprised if the sickle cell data is synonymous with non-white/western. At now above 40% France would likely be a good 15% ahead of the UK or Germany in losing a white majority, and i just dont see it. Then again, i suppose other factors can be at play. Germany still seems a lot more 'european' than Englandoverall . But then German women have hardly any children. i notice that whenever visiting Germany. . Conversely, while admittedly the very highest TFRs occur in heavily muslim areas of England, some of the next highest are in very white areas. if white french women have a TFR more in common with German than English women, i guess anything is possible.
DaveR Posted March 6, 2017 Posted March 6, 2017 hmm, well this study would seem to suggest sickle cell is almost synonymous with 'non-white' although it also includes southern europeans, so maybe not! https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/6dba/3dc3f3bf59cdf80db17662b756cf7145235b.pdf Not sure how many greeks, italians, portugese there are resident in france.
unimaginative Posted March 7, 2017 Posted March 7, 2017 I believe this is the source for what Stefan mentioned about Putnam. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-9477.2007.00176.x/abstract From the abstract: In the short run, however, immigration and ethnic diversity tend to reduce social solidarity and social capital. New evidence from the US suggests that in ethnically diverse neighbourhoods residents of all races tend to ‘hunker down’. Trust (even of one's own race) is lower, altruism and community cooperation rarer, friends fewer.
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