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[YouTube] The Truth About France, Immigration and Radicalization


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With the French Presidential election upcoming, the topic of Immigration and the impact of the European Migrant Crisis remains an incredibly important campaign issue. On July 17th, 2016, French Prime Minister Manuel Valls made a startling claim:  "Terrorism will be a part of our daily lives for a long time. Let's be clear: Times have changed.“ Is terrorism, violence and economic migration something the French people will truly accept as the new normal?

On April 23rd, 2017, France will hold their Presidential election featuring National Front leader Marine Le Pen, Independent Candidate Emmanuel Macron, the Socialist Party’s Benoit Hamon, Left Party’s Jean-Luc Melenchon and Conservative candidate Francois Fillon. What future will the French people choose?

 

Sources

Population of France
http://www.insee.fr/fr/publications-et-services/default.asp?page=abonnements/dossiers_actualite/conference-presse-recensement-14-janvier-2014.htm
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-20/frances-muslim-demographic-future

Foreign Born Population
https://data.oecd.org/migration/foreign-born-population.htm#indicator-chart

Population Projections
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database?node_code=proj

Annual Births and Parent Nationality
https://www.ined.fr/fichier/s_rubrique/170/irsocsd20151_t37ter.fr.xls
https://www.ined.fr/fichier/s_rubrique/170/irsocsd20151_t37.fr.xls
https://www.ined.fr/en/everything_about_population/data/france/births-fertility/births_nationality_parents/#r167

Asylum Applications by Country
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/product?code=migr_asyctz           
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/product?code=migr_asyappctza
http://www.asylumineurope.org/reports/country/france/statistics#footnote3_w0gpmho

Fertility Rates by Religion    
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/02/27/muslims-and-islam-key-findings-in-the-u-s-and-around-the-world/

Unemployment
https://data.oecd.org/migration/native-born-unemployment.htm#indicator-chart
https://data.oecd.org/migration/foreign-born-unemployment.htm#indicator-chart

Labor Participation
https://data.oecd.org/migration/native-born-participation-rates.htm#indicator-chart
https://data.oecd.org/migration/foreign-born-participation-rates.htm#indicator-chart

Radicalization
http://en.rfi.fr/france/20160911-there-will-be-new-attacks-there-will-be-innocent-victims-valls
http://www.france24.com/en/20160913-france-deradicalisation-centre-islamist-threat-jihadism-terrorism
http://www.lejdd.fr/Societe/Les-chiffres-secrets-de-la-radicalisation-islamique-815668
http://m.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11710314
http://www.leparisien.fr/faits-divers/radicalisation-la-police-n-est-pas-epargnee-09-03-2016-5610617.php
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/frances-deradicalization-centers-are-a-total-fiasco-lawmakers-say/2017/02/24/218a8072-fa97-11e6-aa1e-5f735ee31334_story.html?utm_term=.166190f369b2

Prison Population in France
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11352268/What-is-going-wrong-in-Frances-prisons.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/28/AR2008042802560.html?sid=ST2008042802857

Netherlands Crime Information
https://www.cbs.nl/-/media/_pdf/2016/47/ji2016s_web.pdf

France Car Burnings
http://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/societe/fait-divers/nuit-du-nouvel-an-2016-forte-baisse-des-violences-urbaines_1749971.html
http://www.lepoint.fr/societe/valls-choque-par-les-40-000-voitures-brulees-chaque-annee-31-12-2012-1607239_23.php
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/02/almost-1000-cars-torched-around-france-new-years-eve-government/

European Union Terrorist Attacks
https://www.europol.europa.eu/activities-services/main-reports/european-union-terrorism-situation-and-trend-report-te-sat-2016

Support for Suicide Bombing
https://web.archive.org/web/20150429155650/http://www.pewresearch.org/files/old-assets/pdf/muslim-americans.pdf#page=60
http://www.dw.com/en/poll-one-in-four-french-muslims-backs-burqa/a-19560262

Positive Attitude Towards ISIS
https://www.rt.com/news/181076-isis-islam-militans-france/

Survey of French Jews on Rising Anti-Semitism
http://www.lemonde.fr/societe/article/2016/01/15/47-des-hommes-juifs-declarent-avoir-deja-subi-une-agression-antisemite_4848059_3224.html
http://www.thelocal.fr/20160531/french-jews-flee-paris-suburbs-over-rising-anti-semitism

French Attitudes
Mosque Construction: http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2016/04/28/01016-20160428ARTFIG00357-islam-une-image-degradee-en-france-et-en-allemagne.php
Threat to National Identity: http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2016/04/28/01016-20160428ARTFIG00357-islam-une-image-degradee-en-france-et-en-allemagne.php
Headscarf and Burkini: http://www.lepoint.fr/societe/deux-francais-sur-trois-opposes-au-burkini-25-08-2016-2063657_23.php

European Attitudes
http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/07/11/negative-views-of-minorities-refugees-common-in-eu/
https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/what-do-europeans-think-about-muslim-immigration

Demographic Changes in France
http://gulfnews.com/houari-boumedienne-guardian-of-freedom-1.40394
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_France
https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=LqCYTEN7yuwC&pg=PA16
https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=thP_UKhPbP0C&pg=PA39
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3240295/Imam-tells-Muslim-migrants-breed-children-Europeans-conquer-countries-vows-trample-underfoot-Allah-willing.html
http://www.infowars.com/top-iman-muslim-migrants-should-breed-with-europeans-to-conquer-their-countries
https://www.comp.leeds.ac.uk/nora/html/4-100.html



 

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Ironically (perhaps?), despite a lot of people objecting to the official, nationwide collection of racial data due to the usual claims of it being 'something they would do in apartheid south africa' or somesuch, i believe it is actually pro-immigrant groups wanting the collection in France, due to suspicions of non-whites being kept out of jobs, under-represented, etc etc.

 

Certainly, after decades of sporadic, patchy 'ethnic monitioring' here in the UK, a large part of the reason for the collection of such comprehensive ethnic/racial data here since the 1990s (UK government now seems to produce racial stats for anything & everything - though oddly they stopped releasing data on births by race of baby 3 years back) is due to constant claims of discrimination by the BME lobby.

 

There are other yardsticks demographers use to go by - potential for sickle cell issues is one i've seen. Not sure how much to read into it. 

https://bloodyshovel.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/73akbau.png?w=630

Another way to look at the youth demographic would be school/class photos. 

 

For comparison. in 2014. the last year available, 65% of babies born in England were 'white, british' & about 75% white overall, white British falling about 1% a year quite consistently, white overall falling quite slowly in recent years due to eastern euro migrants. A similar rate is recorded in the annual schools census, with about 70% of pupils British (87% in 1997) and 76% white overall (89% in 1997) by 2016.

 

Germany also has a similar rate to Englands 35% births of  immigrant stock...

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/09/21/germany-40-percent-migrant-background/...though again, I would imagine at least 10% of those are to white immigrants. 

 

Either way, id be surprised if the sickle cell data is synonymous with non-white/western. At now above 40% France would likely be a good 15% ahead of the UK or Germany in losing a white majority, and i just dont see it. Then again, i suppose other factors can be at play. Germany still seems a lot more 'european' than Englandoverall . But then German women have hardly any children. i notice that whenever visiting Germany. . Conversely, while admittedly the very highest TFRs occur in heavily muslim areas of England, some of the next highest are in very white areas. if white french women have a TFR more in common with German than English women, i guess anything 

is possible. 

 

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I believe this is the source for what Stefan mentioned about Putnam. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-9477.2007.00176.x/abstract

 

From the abstract:

In the short run, however, immigration and ethnic diversity tend to reduce social solidarity and social capital. New evidence from the US suggests that in ethnically diverse neighbourhoods residents of all races tend to ‘hunker down’. Trust (even of one's own race) is lower, altruism and community cooperation rarer, friends fewer.

 

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