The Deadline for Civilization Collapse: November 3rd, 2020

[jroseland]

Many prescient minds agree that we are on a trajectory for civilizational collapse.

Insane amounts of national debt

Vulnerability of national infrastructure

None-replacement birth rates

Toxic culture thanks to cultural Marxism and feminism 

Mass 3rd world immigration

Islamic extremism

 

My thesis is that a western civilizational collapse with a Hard Landing is preferable.

A hard landing is relatively rapid, taking weeks or months as opposed to years or decades.

A hard landing is acutely painful for the people who go through it.

Governments will be caught unawares by a hard landing.

A hard landing is disruptive to the dominant establishments of business, media, academia, etc

A hard landing creates chaos, out of chaos there's the opportunity for civilizational reset.

 

A hypothetical Hard Landing in the United States...

Wall Street has a very bad day of trading which triggers an economic death spiral of hyperinflation. In the course of a few days or weeks the Dollar loses much of it's value.

Food and resources price hikes or shortages further enrage the population. Perhaps a coincidental black swan event occurs exacerbating national panic; terrorism, natural disaster, domestic unrest, etc.

A federal government shut down occurs as politicians endlessly squabble about how to fix it.

The government runs out of money to fund welfare programs, food stamps and pensions.

Widespread rioting occurs in major US coastal cities.

Tribal warfare escalates in urban areas between racial and political groups.

The Federal government declares martial law and announces deployment of troops to mitigate unrest. With the federal government not providing services, a few states (Looking at you Texas!) rebel against the federal government and announce the intention to succeed from the union.

Some rogue generals and military commanders refuse to follow orders from the federal government and declare loyalty to local governments. Many members of the military who are fundamentally patriotic refuse to fight and kill other Americans.

Other states follow, the United States of America breaks up along racial, cultural and political lines (perhaps into 9 different nations)

At least a couple million Americans die from a combination of food and resource shortages, lack of health care and battles between the federal military and state militias.

Some states implement communist and extreme leftist economic and social policies (Looking at you California!), opening their borders to mass immigration and descend further into disorder. They do what many 3rd world countries do now; managing to avert total collapse and keep their socialized services barely working by accepting billions in foreign aid from globalist central bankers. Authoritarian socialist dictators or techno-oligarchs rise to power in the new North American banana republics who constrict freedom but restore a semblance of order and normalcy with a combination of state sanctioned violence and surveillance, like in many 3rd world countries!

But in some of the new republics, there is a return to libertarian principals of small government, property rights and free markets. They resist central banking and use gold backed currencies or Bitcoin. The new republics use the power of technology and Internet to implement direct democracy and forms of minimal government that are less susceptible to corruption. Militias of patriotic gun owners guard their borders vigilantly  After a few tough years the standard of living and economic opportunity is on par with what it is now in America and there is a return to political sanity, but tens of millions have had a rude philosophical awakening.

Western civilization survives!

 

France is going through a Soft Landing civilizational collapse...

The people are so totally indoctrinated by cultural marxism and fear of racism that they refuse to recognize their own national self interests.

As the right to free speech disappears and economic opportunity dwindles, the government will appease younger generations of voters by legalizing drugs.

Increased brain drain of entrepreneurial young people leaving the country will exacerbate unemployment. 

Increasing terrorism will be blamed on lack of economic opportunity, racism, climate change and a foreign bogeyman, either Russia or the United States.

Urban warfare between tribal and political groups becomes common place but the mainstream media refuses to report on it and alternative media is totally censored.

The government will use a major terrorist attack as an impetus to fight a war against extremism. The extremists targeted will be Nationalists, Patriots, Libertarians, Anarchists and Christians. The anti-fascists will find that the fascists of their nightmares have indeed finally appeared. The central government will jail leaders of dissident political parties, journalists, etc just on basis of opinions expressed.

A national militarized police comprised almost totally of none-white French will be in charge of enforcement. They will put down small rebellions of ethnic French patriots.

The government will collaborate with Silicon Valley tech firms to spy on their citizens every word and thought through their smart phones. Pre-crime prosecution will begin.

Thanks to declining native birth rates a tipping point of Islamic social influence will be reached and an uneasy alliance will exist between the authoritarian socialist globalists in the government that control the economy and the military and authoritarian Imams and Muftis that control the culture.

As economic opportunity becomes none existent automation will save French society from total collapse. The government will announce a Universal Basic Income scheme which will be funded by a combination of higher taxes and money printing.

The population will kept comfortably complacent by a combination of guaranteed basic income, services provided by automation, free healthcare, legalized drugs, porn, video games and propagandistic media.

France breaking up or declaring itself an Islamic state would be such an admission of failure of the media and the globalist establishment that France will remain France but in name only.

The frogs are being very slowly boiled so there's no widescale freakout, just incremental decrease in freedom and western civilization dies with a wimper.

 

In the past a soft landing to civilizational collapse would be preferable because of lack violence and loss of life. It would be a relatively pain free civilizational reset. However, it's a very different in our era;

A slow decline will allow the government and ruling establishment to entrench and further protect their power.

Local police forces will be replaced with national militarized police forces.

The current world financial system allows for countries to be saved from their idiotic decisions by fiat money printing and loans from foreign central banks (Looking at you Greece!)

Over time people become complacent with tyranny, they cynically accept that the government is corrupt and criminal and that there is nothing they can do.

Ubiquitous smart phones and social media make it possible for the government to spy on you everywhere. It was said that in the Soviet Union that the only time you could express your anger with the government was in bed, with the lights out, under the covers to your wife. In a Soft Landing civilizational collapse we won't even have that freedom because we all use our smartphones in bed and wives have been replaced by porn!

There's a high likelihood that the kinds of totalitarian governments resulting from a soft landing would eventually start a nuclear war with each other. Which of course is actually good for the elites because it reduces the number of useless eaters that need to be provided for.

The best case scenario is a dystopian technologically mediated tyranny and the worst case scenario is a nuclear war occurring that would kill millions or billions of humans.

 

As I've said elsewhere Western Civilization wobbles on a knife's edge, how could it be nudged for a Hard Landing as opposed to a long descent into darkness?

(I'm speaking purely hypothetically, I would never advocate violence or economic terrorism)

It seems to me that a sudden economic crash is our best to hope for a Hard Landing.

A nuclear EMP attack on the United States (as portrayed in AmeriGEDDON) would certainly trigger a Hard Landing.

What else...?

 

Secondly, do you agree with my reasoning that a Hard Landing is preferrable?

It seems to me that a hard landing in the near future would be preferable, on their present course a black swan disaster in several decades will probably just be an opportunity for government to expand their power.

 

The deadline for answering these questions is Tuesday , November 3rd 2020, the day of the US general election.

President Trump is the most conspicuous manifestation of our effort to prevent a civilizational collapse. If there's something to the Great Man view of history; Trump would be the man that could turn things around and avert a civilizational collapse.

 

But if Trump is subsumed by the swamp and totally fails in his campaign promises, then it's fair enough to say that the system is beyond saving. At that point it would be clear that civilizational collapse is inevitable and a Hard Landing preferable.

Edited May 13, 2017 by jroseland
Grammer check

[plato85]

Bloody hell. You make everyone stashing away gold sound like an optimist! I agree hard landing is preferable.

You forgot to add that Trump is planted there as a scape goat and we've been conditioned to believe that he's an evil Nazi anyway, so that these disasters are blamed on the 'right-wing' (even though that term has already completely lost all meaning), the disasters give the elites an excuse to bring in this communist government.

 

[StevenRichards]

Man, it's like people get off on this stuff... fear porn?

Unless you're harvesting all your family's food, how about working on that, before taking on the world and what everyone else might do to make things tough? Permaculture/Regenerative Ag ftw! Do some annuals, so you at least get a little yield your first years, but focus on building soil fertility in the long term, by slowing water (earthworks: swales, hugelculture etc) and sequestering carbon and nitrogen (silvopasture, holistic management, nitrogen fixing perennials etc). Learning to hunt seems a valuable investment... a couple deer can feed a family all year... assuming they're not keto gluttons. If you're against killing, I hear speaking with the right people can yield lots of roadkill...

[ofd]

Quote

Wall Street has a very bad day of trading which triggers an economic death spiral of hyperinflation.

How does a bad day of trading cause hyperinflation?

[jroseland]

5 minutes ago, ofd said:

How does a bad day of trading cause hyperinflation?

A bad day like September 16, 2008...

Although, I'm not really an expert on the stock market. Would history not bear though that risky Wall Street trading can cause inflation?

[ofd]

Did the crash of 2008 lead to hyperinflation?

 

Quote

Although, I'm not really an expert on the stock market. Would history not bear though that risky Wall Street trading can cause inflation?

No. Stock crashes lead to deflationary periods, all other things being equal.

[Dylan Lawrence Moore]

3 hours ago, jroseland said:

A bad day like September 16, 2008...

Although, I'm not really an expert on the stock market. Would history not bear though that risky Wall Street trading can cause inflation?

The 2008 recession was preceded by balancing the federal budget.

[Rventurelli]

There was an excellent book by Patrick J. Buchanan called The Suicide of a Superpower that asks the question: Will America survive to 2025?

While I highly recommend the book, I think Mr. Buchanan exaggerated on purpose. The United States of America will probably collapse, at least in its current form, in my opinion, around 2030-35.

[plato85]

The fall of Rome was a slow and crazy process. Civilizations can go though depression and famon and come out of it stronger. But when society goes crazy that's harder to recover from.

[PureSodiumDiet]

On 5/13/2017 at 11:57 AM, ofd said:

Did the crash of 2008 lead to hyperinflation?

The increase in money printing has lead to inflation. In the 10 years passed your money has lost about 1/3 of it's purchasing power

However, I don't think that 2020 will be the year, it's too soon. I predict that the collapse will come at the latest by 2030 (although possibly in the mid 2020s) because that is when all the boomers retire and cause the upside down pyramid welfare scheme to finally collapse. A few years ago I thought my mom was joking when she said they would stick her into a meatgrinder after retirement, I think she's right now.

[ofd]

Quote

The increase in money printing has lead to inflation. 

That's not reflected in the numbers. Compared to previous years, the rate of inflation has gone down. The increase in money printing did not lead to inflation. 

http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/consumer-price-index-and-annual-percent-changes-from-1913-to-2008/

 

Quote

In the 10 years passed your money has lost about 1/3 of it's purchasing power

If you keep money in your matrace, then yes. If you invest it, then not so much. 

[jroseland]

On 5/14/2017 at 3:25 PM, PureSodiumDiet said:

The increase in money printing has lead to inflation. In the 10 years passed your money has lost about 1/3 of it's purchasing power

However, I don't think that 2020 will be the year, it's too soon. I predict that the collapse will come at the latest by 2030 (although possibly in the mid 2020s) because that is when all the boomers retire and cause the upside down pyramid welfare scheme to finally collapse. A few years ago I thought my mom was joking when she said they would stick her into a meatgrinder after retirement, I think she's right now.

The point I was trying to make was that a collapse in 2030 would be a soft collapse - it would result in further constriction of liberty as opposed to an opportunity to reorganize society

[jroseland]

On 5/14/2017 at 7:12 AM, plato85 said:

The fall of Rome was a slow and crazy process. Civilizations can go though depression and famon and come out of it stronger. But when society goes crazy that's harder to recover from.

I don't think the fall of Rome is analogous because in our time a centralized government can project power literally all the way around the globe. Do you think a soft landing is preferable?

[jroseland]

On 5/14/2017 at 6:24 AM, Rventurelli said:

There was an excellent book by Patrick J. Buchanan called The Suicide of a Superpower that asks the question: Will America survive to 2025?

While I highly recommend the book, I think Mr. Buchanan exaggerated on purpose. The United States of America will probably collapse, at least in its current form, in my opinion, around 2030-35.

That sounds interesting... I see it was written in 2011. Does it discuss demographic change/mass immigration as a factor? 6 years ago it was a topic that not many conservatives were considering.

Although, the people predicting that the United States will collapse between 2030-2050 are I think not factoring

a) Surveillance technology

b) Economic engineering

These two factors will allow the government to project power even if the economy and social cohesion break down completely. In the past if governments or superpowers ran out of money to maintain their armies they would be over run, conquered and replaced.

A collapse between 2030-2050 would be a disastrous soft collapse; American values, liberties, freedom of speech would die and the demographic makeup of the country would change radically but in name only it would remain the United States. 

The Holy Roman Empire wasn't officially dissolved 1806, but we all know that it was an impostor empire, it wasn't Rome.

[Erwin]

I believe that your theory doesn't take into account reactionary behavior. The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior.

The last time a country was in this predicament, it was Germany. Everyone predicted it would fall. Couples years of Hitler is all it took for real incomes to rise 10%, inflation to go down, and to tell the ((( banks ))) to f--- off.

Imo, if Trump doesn't fix things, things will get worse, and people will get even angrier. Perhaps we will have our own Hitler. 

[plato85]

14 hours ago, Erwin said:

I believe that your theory doesn't take into account reactionary behavior. The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior.

The last time a country was in this predicament, it was Germany. Everyone predicted it would fall. Couples years of Hitler is all it took for real incomes to rise 10%, inflation to go down, and to tell the ((( banks ))) to f--- off.

Imo, if Trump doesn't fix things, things will get worse, and people will get even angrier. Perhaps we will have our own Hitler. 

The rise of the Nazis was a reaction to Bolshevism and communism. The Wiemar Republic was completely irrational, but Nazi Germany wasn't exactly an enlightenment movement. They were burning books. They closed down the free press and media, and put in their own propaganda. The universities were already quite bad but the Nazis just put in their own narrow Nationalist syllabus. Reactions can be as irrational as the thing they're reacting against.

On the other hand the Germans have never been particularly enlightened, the way rest of Europe (esp Britain and France), and US have been. So they didn't have anything rational to fall back on where we do.

[jjbaugher]

With the US's worshiping "Coolness" and hating "geekyness," I don't think that our population is rational.   Also I can't see how massively traumatizing people will increase rationality and reduce emotional reactions what happens.

Also, any dramatic splitting of the states while other countries have relatively the same power will set up for foreign intervention to enhance the Chaos, Death & Destruction. 

 

I think the best collapse is one where the fed gov turns over responsibility for internal governing to the states, and only uses its funding to support military that is gradually withdrawn around the world to defensive positions for U.S.A.    Is it possible, yes,  my guessed likely hood of it happening <1%. 

 

 

[RichardY]

Might not "collapse", could be heading for a civilisation, based even more on slavery. Aka N.Korea. You can run, but you can't hide. Some sort of doomsday clock might be entertaining, I wonder what it should be based on.

[Erwin]

1 hour ago, plato85 said:

The rise of the Nazis was a reaction to Bolshevism and communism.

((( Communism ))) was a ((( Jewish ))) import. The Nazis were a reaction to ((( Jewish ))) influence.

1 hour ago, plato85 said:

The Wiemar Republic was completely irrational, but Nazi Germany wasn't exactly an enlightenment movement. They were burning books. They closed down the free press and media, and put in their own propaganda.

Yes. They were burning ((( books ))), they closed down the ((( press ))) and  ((( media ))). All the things that the ((( Jews ))) were glorifying in the Weimar, such as ((( faggotry, lesbianism, polyamory, cuckolding, and promiscuity ))) was replaced with traditional European norms under the Nazis. I think this is pretty good!

1 hour ago, plato85 said:

The universities were already quite bad but the Nazis just put in their own narrow Nationalist syllabus.

The universities weren't just "bad". They were ((( fraudulent ))). One famous case is known as ((( Einstein ))) who verbatim plagiarized (without even citing) the works of Hendrik Lorentz, James Maxwell, and Henri Poincare (the actual guy behind E = mc2).

The Nazis restored the universities from their ((( fraud ))) status. I think this is pretty good too!

1 hour ago, plato85 said:

Reactions can be as irrational as the thing they're reacting against.

Protecting your race and children is irrational? Then I'm irrational, and dang proud of it too.

1 hour ago, plato85 said:

On the other hand the Germans have never been particularly enlightened, the way rest of Europe (esp Britain and France), and US have been.

Oh you mean aside from Matrix algebra (Gauss), nuclear physics (Planck), quantum mechanics (Heisenberg), computer research (von Neumann), sound (Hertz), etc.? 

If you say so!

1 hour ago, plato85 said:

So they didn't have anything rational to fall back on where we do.

They put an end to their genocide, and restored their culture and identity. This is irrational? I'm not sure if you're intentionally anti-white or just regurgitating ((( Jewish ))) propaganda.

[Erwin]

 ignore this post, cant delete

[plato85]

Nazi Germany was not restoring traditional European norms, they were more like a regression to Ancient Sparta. The Nazis were fighting were traditional European countries.

[ofd]

Quote

The rise of the Nazis was a reaction to Bolshevism and communism. 

No it wasn't. The first National Socialist movement was a Czech one, in the Habsburg Empire. They had the majority of the seats for the Czech faction.

 

Quote

The Wiemar Republic was completely irrational

Depends on the perspective. It served some interests to have a broke, degenerate society. 

 

Quote

but Nazi Germany wasn't exactly an enlightenment movement.

Enlightenment is no value in itself. If rational self interest leads to atomisation of a society, it has to be cut back.

 

Quote

On the other hand the Germans have never been particularly enlightened, the way rest of Europe (esp Britain and France), and US have been. So they didn't have anything rational to fall back on where we do.

You are begging the question by saying the enlightenment was rational. 

[Erwin]

10 hours ago, plato85 said:

Nazi Germany was not restoring traditional European norms, they were more like a regression to Ancient Sparta.

Are you saying that because they were at war, they were warmongers and therefore a military culture like Sparta?

If this is your argument then I say one does not follow the other, and the premise is wrong to begin with.

The were not warmongers.

The war was initially with ((( USSR ))), which as a ((( globalist ))) ideology was a very credible threat. The german invasion of Poland was also not the trigger of WWII as ((( they ))) like to say. Poland happened because German intel informed Hitler that Stalin was going to invade Poland, which was a buffer state for Germany. Hitler decided that he had to invade the USSR, not Poland. When the question of how to start the invasion came, the plan was to have Hitler speak with Stalin, split Poland between the two evenly. When the invasion started, Hitler just kept going.

And that's just the eastern front. They did not start the western front; England did started it, through the real warmonger ((( Hertzl ))) - future founder of ((( Israel ))) - who owned Churchill like a puppy.

Nazis also did not start the war on ((( Jews ))); ((( Judea ))) declared war on Germany in 1933.

They were not a military culture.

In sparta, all aspect of life was quite literally designed by the Spartan King for the sole purpose of advancing the military capability of Sparta. This was not the case at all in Germany.

The Germans had their military service, but every country had that. Once it was over, you could proceed to get a job, start a family, etc, just like every other white country. Perfect example, if Hitler wanted a military culture, he would not have bothered annexing Austria or the Suderland. The sole purpose of those annexations were to increase the supply of land, as housing was increasingly scarce in Germany at the time. This goes against the interests of the German military. More land simply spreads your military thin.

European norms

Replacing:

11 hours ago, Erwin said:

((( faggotry, lesbianism, polyamory, cuckolding, and promiscuity )))

with the exact opposite, is a regression to Sparta? I don't see how it's a regression, nor do I see how Sparta was a ((( Jew ))) culture.

10 hours ago, plato85 said:

The Nazis were fighting were traditional European countries.

The eastern war was a fight with the ((( Soviets ))). Perfectly reasonable, if you ask me.

The western war was really a proxy war, since the ((( they ))) didn't have a military on the western front. The "Allies" were technically ((( Allies ))).

Hitler's struggle was never with Europeans. It was with ((( Jews ))).

[jimofflorida]

10 hours ago, Erwin said:

Hitler's struggle was never with Europeans. It was with ((( Jews ))).

ahhhh... no, Hitler was bit of a nut job and his struggle was with, well, everybody, including himself; no point in even trying to go down any other path with that...

While a lunatic, he was VERY effectively in mobilizing a people that at that time really needed "something" to pull them together, sadly it was a lunatic with a gift to lead. Oh what could have been if the focus had been in a different direction. Notice any similar trends with our leftist friends here in the US in just the past 8-10 years?? They are lost and looking to latch on to the most charismatic lair they can see that will fill their empty souls with the illusion of hope.

As to the downfall of america in anything remotely related to its current form; yea, that train is coming into the train yard at full speed and nobody is in the engine. If we look at the big empires,say roman, they had a good 1000yr run (700bc-3/400 AD) and within a 100 years..poof, just remnants. so if you think in terms of percentages in less than 10% of the empires lifespan, they died. So for us that's (and we are at least 4 years into the spiral) about 25-30 yrs left??

Now this is where its get interesting, at no other point in history has a government been so able to literal control/influence across its empire down to the level of an individual in a moments notice! Entire cities can be tagged and bagged very easily (modern military ammo goes thru wood, concrete blocks, even mild steel without much effort at all); or better yet,  by controlling the uneducated masses you can cause the "people" to actually demand that we go back to a more proletariat and aristocracy divided class structure where we all bow down to the elites. Lets face it, we are heading that way at high speed now and I am not sure it will take even 10 years to get there. We already have high level government elites completely immune to the laws of the land...and many people are happy about it **boggle**.  People worship entertainers "opinions" on matters of society ignoring that the entertainers come from an extremely dysfunctional community and do not produce anything, it amazes me. We had the last 8 years of our leadership filling the layers of government (some of them with life time positions) with social activist. While it was entertaining to think that a single new president could fix 8+ years of corruption, I do not think they (they being the entrenched government) will allow anything useful to happen and, sadly, President Trump will be lucky to avoid getting "convicted" of something in the next four years. In a room of full of liars the honest man will always lose...

[Erwin]

2 hours ago, jimofflorida said:

ahhhh... no, Hitler was bit of a nut job and his struggle was with, well, everybody, including himself; no point in even trying to go down any other path with that...

Can you rebut my argument then?

[aviet]

Quote

On the raised subject of hyperinflation and economic collapse.

For hyperinflation to occur requires large amounts more currency to enter into general circulation as to devalue the currency against the available resources. The vast amounts of money that have been printed by central banks for the last 8-9 years has gone to banks to sure up their untenable positions.

If I remember correctly the Wiemar inflation happened because citizens had hoarded money for a few years during which there was printing. When a period of economic hardship passed that money came out of hiding and snowballed into hyperinflation. Something like this isn't possible now as only a small fraction of the money supply is physical.

Hyperinflation in the US would require the banks to gush out their stored digital money by buying assets or making loans.

Like seemingly everyone above I think an severe economic collapse is likely and desirable as I feel it will at least have a chance of ending a lot of the unsustainable themes currently playing out. Plus the shock of this will give people the medicine they need rather than missing the message as the heat is slowly turned up.

In the West a lot of the nominal economic growth in 90s and 00s was fueled by a large increase in corporate and household debt, i.e. rather than saving and thus borrowing from past frugality people increasingly borrowed from the future. The latter has a lower bar to access as it requires no work, just a line to credit. This ease of access causes many people to make less than optimal decisions. It is this combination of debt and poor decisions that has caused the economic crashes of the last 100 years or so:

1 - The Great Depression - people use credit to overbuy stocks well over their value
2 - 2008 sub-prime crisis - people use credit to buy houses they can't afford
3 - Dot com boom and bust - people use credit to buy stocks that are in some cases worth nothing

An event like a backlog of people unable to service their debts causes a combination of sells offs, rediscovery of price and wipe outs. This destablises the economy, which requires stable prices to be able to make profitable decisions. It can causes debts to pancake on top of each other and the same with businesses. Panic takes hold and people loose confidence in spending.

However, one big difference with any financial crash that will happen in the current era is greatly increased communications over 1929 and even 1997. In 1929 it would have been impossible to collect all the relevant data and disseminate it to all the right people in a short enough time to be able to patch over the mess with some sort of restructuring.

I think if there is another financial collapse in the West that it will be papered over again due to good communications. It will be quite painful and will increase disintegration. I see Greece defaulting and Italy, Spain and Portugal slipping into the position Italy now finds itself in. The Northern European nations will slip towards 130% govt. debt to GDP, but they have the ability to take on more than that. It will likely see attempts to take Italy out of the Euro/EU and take Catalonia out of Spain. It would also be good for La Pen in France and Wilders in The Netherlands, but this would all take time to pan out.

If we are going to see a financial crash that will take us into a Greatest Depression Rest I think it will come from China. Due to poor links between China and other economies, there will be less opportunity to restructure bad debts that will beging piling on top of one another around the globe. China has also made some of the worst financial decisions in history: fueled with exuberance over their success and with a never before seen velocity of private debt accumulation China has built dozens of ghost cities and invested in unviable businesses.

The growth of the West in the 90s and 00s was fueled by private debt. This ended in 2008, along with growth. It's only government stimulus and restructuring that has been able to turn the depression into a managed decline. Right now China is in the same position, but on steroids. If they can't control their debt when it is inevitably shaken, I feel it's the most likely source of a huge worldwide depression. And it will happen at a time when many countries are already in a depression, such as:



On top of those you have countries in considerable states of collapse: Venezuela, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan. And you have considerable amounts of political instability. Some countries in Africa are dependent on up to ~60% foreign aid for their government budget and many rely on food aid to avoid starvation.

The Greatest Depression will be the messiest, most painful reset ever.

[jimofflorida]

20 hours ago, Erwin said:

Can you rebut my argument then?

well, I guess my first sentence or two missed hitting the target, so let me try again to get past that and onto the rest of my previous post ;-)

The transition from the original posters thesis statement that: (1)western civilization WILL fall and (2) it would be best if it collapsed quickly, is what the thread was about and somehow it veered into lots of talk of Germany and Nazis which is what the media seems to want every discussion to center on when trying to talk about US political dynamics.  So I foolishly tried to point out that Germany had lots of issues, Hitler had lots of issues; and its all old news and not apropos to the thread. 

aviet has a good approach, lets look at GDP and dept as societal collapse indicators:

So I will toss in current debt as a percent of GDP and I think this confirms part (1):

so we sit at=> USA 106.4%

and lets sample some others and see if that can provide some insight into how "hard" things will fail...

japan 220%

Greece 183%

France 100%

China 93%

Great Britain 87%

Germany 79%

mexico 45%

Brazil 30%

Russia 16%

South Africa 43%

Now we have a problem, it seems some can "fail" with a much lower debt ratio. In addition, how do we account for the fact that due to strong interdependence in the "high dept ratio club" they will, in anyway possible, work to avoid a hard crash as the ripple effect will be quite nasty. So I would speculate that yes the US will "fail" and formally transition from a constitutional republic to an aristocracy quite soon (the trip will only require removing a few items from the bill of rights). That said, I think there will be a soft crash to minimize the services provided to the "royalty" class and a continual reduction in the typical items used to bribe the masses (food, health, entertainment)...until one day they get back to realizing they are unarmed peasants with no real say in how they will live.

 

[Rventurelli]

On 5/16/2017 at 4:07 AM, jroseland said:

That sounds interesting... I see it was written in 2011. Does it discuss demographic change/mass immigration as a factor? 6 years ago it was a topic that not many conservatives were considering.

Although, the people predicting that the United States will collapse between 2030-2050 are I think not factoring

a) Surveillance technology

b) Economic engineering

These two factors will allow the government to project power even if the economy and social cohesion break down completely. In the past if governments or superpowers ran out of money to maintain their armies they would be over run, conquered and replaced.

A collapse between 2030-2050 would be a disastrous soft collapse; American values, liberties, freedom of speech would die and the demographic makeup of the country would change radically but in name only it would remain the United States. 

The Holy Roman Empire wasn't officially dissolved 1806, but we all know that it was an impostor empire, it wasn't Rome.

A major part of his argument was whites becoming a minority in the United States, death of religion, polarization of politics and the different racial and ethnic groups having an ever bigger difference in values/culture.