Prognostications About Future Poll

[Siegfried von Walheim]

I'm curious, what do you guys think is going to happen in the next couple decades? I put up a poll to give out a few general theories based on whatever I could think of, and I'm curious as to what you guys' think about it all.

[Crusader1986]

Muslims will succeed in doing something truly horrific, like a chemical weapons attack on a city or festival, leading to a tipping point for white europeans and resulting in a huge backlash and genocide against muslims. Either that or slow escalation to civil war resulting in tens of thousands of dead muslims, maybe even reaching the 6 digit numbers. Either way the muslims have got a huge thrashing coming to them. It's only a matter of time. The longer the wait, the more unreleased pressure builds up, and the greater the explosion when it does happen. It's going to be ugly.

[M.2]

Geopolitics is probably one of the most complex and dynamic of the sciences, which is why I think we are going to have to go see what happened in in earlier situations like this in order to guess what might happen.

I think the presentation on the Fall of the Roman Empire smashed the nail on the head not only because Mr.Molyneux highlighted how earily familiar the political state of the west is, but also because exactly like today, the eastern part of civilisation has a stark resemlance to the old Eastern Roman Empire, which did not fall for another 1000 years.
If this parallel is true, and if we count the Expansion of the EU (2004AD) as the establishment of the Roman Empire (27BC), then we are actually right around the equivalent of the 10BC mark. The policies align pretty accurately, the state of the superstate is also similar in its level of integrity. The good news is that the time has not yet come for the fecal matter to really hit the fan. The bad news is that this is only the beginning of the end. 490 years to go.

So if the example of the two roman empires is any clue, then we can speculate that it will get worse, then much worse, and then the Roman Pontiff will work out a way to convert the barbarians, and only then will it start getting better. 

If we are talking about only the next 20 years, then I think the civil war option is the most likely. But you know, 20 years is a very short time in the history of cultures.

[Siegfried von Walheim]

On 7/9/2017 at 1:55 PM, Mishi2 said:

Geopolitics is probably one of the most complex and dynamic of the sciences, which is why I think we are going to have to go see what happened in in earlier situations like this in order to guess what might happen.

I think the presentation on the Fall of the Roman Empire smashed the nail on the head not only because Mr.Molyneux highlighted how earily familiar the political state of the west is, but also because exactly like today, the eastern part of civilisation has a stark resemlance to the old Eastern Roman Empire, which did not fall for another 1000 years.
If this parallel is true, and if we count the Expansion of the EU (2004AD) as the establishment of the Roman Empire (27BC), then we are actually right around the equivalent of the 10BC mark. The policies align pretty accurately, the state of the superstate is also similar in its level of integrity. The good news is that the time has not yet come for the fecal matter to really hit the fan. The bad news is that this is only the beginning of the end. 490 years to go.

So if the example of the two roman empires is any clue, then we can speculate that it will get worse, then much worse, and then the Roman Pontiff will work out a way to convert the barbarians, and only then will it start getting better. 

I'd argue we have more in common with the end of the Roman Republic in terms of likely outcomes, which gives some optimism as the Roman Empire's first 200 years was actually considered by many the best time to be alive until America in the 20th century, with all kinds of good stuff outlined in the Fall of Rome presentation.

The EU could be argued similarly to the decline of the American republic. However I don't think we're so close as to see them fall within the next 10 years, but then again who knows? I don't know all the players of the world stage and I doubt anyone does as I'm sure quite a few are hidden either in plain sight or hidden altogether. A lot can change in 10 years; perhaps the crap will reverse itself enough to prolong the era for another couple decades, or it won't and instead escalate into armed conflict in the next half century. 

On 7/9/2017 at 1:55 PM, Mishi2 said:

If we are talking about only the next 20 years, then I think the civil war option is the most likely. But you know, 20 years is a very short time in the history of cultures.

It's also worth noting the potency of technology to effectively "shrink" the time it takes for "things to happen" and for "things to be suppressed/exposed".

I am sure if nothing changes armed conflict is inevitable. However something is always changing and therefore some grain somewhere is going to tip something over leading to another new factor to be considered. Like Donald Trump. Who saw him coming? Maybe his family and friends, but that's probably it. His term is not even a year old; who knows what'll happen and how it'll affect the West as a whole. Similarly we should consider the criminality of Prime Minister Trudeau and other treasonous heads-of-state and how they'll conflict with more nationalistic leaders like Putin and Trump. 

So much to consider, I think I was being arrogant in assuming I could come up with most or all possible outcomes in one poll.  I think it's safe to say the Muslims will eventually be thrown out; the real question is, who's next? And what will the costs be against us? Who'll be saved? Etc. etc. So much to consider and so many things can happen. Although we can make broad predictions based on history, we can't say for sure which prediction will come true nor how much of that prediction will come true. People as individuals may be largely predictable, however the rare and quality individuals (including intelligent wreckers and traitors) throw a monkey wrench into any prognostication I might have. Anything could happen. 

[Crusader1986]

Yes I think Muslims will eventually be kicked out of Europe. The question is when? After tens of millions of ethnic Europeans have died and we decide to kick them out of Europe, Spanish Inquisition style? Or will we kick them out before it gets really bad, eg when we realise we can't stop the spiralling birth rates and we've tried everything eg stopped all muslim immigration, stopped all benefits, closed all the mosques, banned Islam from Europe.