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European Civil War: Intelligent Speculations


M.2

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I have attempted to outline the possible belligerent sides in the upcoming civil war, based on current political conflicts. Generally, the split sides can be labelled Left and Right.

Note: Some countries will enter unified, but others will be internally fragmented along ideological lines. For past similar examples in history see Thirty Years War.

LEFT
-European Union (Brussels): as the de-facto leading government for most of Europe, they will be the standard bearers for the Left.
-Wallonia (Namur): Unlike Flanders, the Walloons remain socialistic, as demonstrated in the 2014 elections, and will most likely join the Left.
-German Federal Government (Berlin): The Bundestag will be the most zealous fighter on the side of European Unity, just as they have always been.
-French Govenment (Paris): France, being already very divided and weak, will not be much of a force externally, but will be very active in putting down domestic insurrections.
-Monaco: Will not be of any significance.
-Netherlands (Amsterdam): Not a very active, but definite ally of Brussels, led by the VVD, who won the last elections comfortably.
-Scotland (Edinburgh): Scotland, for some reason love their EU, and will be a thorn in the back of the UK.
-Luxembourg: Piece of Scheissen
-Catalonia (Barcelona): Under the leadership of the Republican Left, they will likely take a stand on the side of Brussels.
-Andorra: Being under the rule of Spain and France, they have their choices made for them.
-Sweden (Stockholm): Sweden will become a battlefield in the Civil War, but at least a virtuous one.

Right
-Visegrad4 (Warsaw): Under the leadership of Poland, the V4 will spearhead the defiance against Brussels, since they are as of now the only compact political union in Europe.
-Russia (Moscow): Will support V4, but only cautiously, as not to provoke the US.
-Flanders (Antwerpen): The surge of the New Flemish Alliance in the 2014 elections of Flanders is a clear indication that the Flemings are drawing closer to nationalism are Rightism.
-Bavaria (München): The uncomformism of the Bavarians is nothing new if we look at history. Consistently voting for their Bavaria Party. Under the leadership of Seehofer, ally of V4
-Saxony (Dresden): Although they are still led by the Christian Democrats, I predict that because of their rightist population, and because of the AFD, they will defy Berlin.
-Hauts-de-France (Lille): This is a bit of a wild card, but the last election has clearly shown a very peculiar divergence showing in northern France.
-Corsica: A small, but very loud part of France, who have demonstrated nationalistic sentiments. I think they will defy Paris.
-UK (London): The UK always manages to pick a side just before the storm. With the exception of dissident Scotland and some liberal areas, the country will be firmly right.
-Finland (Helsinki): The Finns, though liberal, are a very geopolitically aware nation, and will surely join the V4, albeit weary of Russia.
-Baltic States (Vilnius): Being one of the few true alliances in Europe, formed through geopolitical necessity, the baltics will be the rearguard for the V4.
-Austria (Vienna): With the exception of the bigger cities, all of Austria is firmly right leaning. If forced to pick a side, they will join the V4.
-Slovenia (Ljubljana): Very likely to join the V4 as a member.
-Croatia (Zagreb): Very likely to join V4 as a member.
-Bulgaria (Sofia): Will be the bulwark against the migrant wave that Turkey will release onto the EU.
-Macedonia (Skopje): Will continue to put up a fight against the migrant wave, but will be unable to affect the Civil War significantly.
-Malta (Valletta): Will not be of any significance.

 

Neutral
-Switzerland (Bern): Fashionably neutral, but secretly will be a sympathiser to the rightist cause, with the exception of the french-speaking cantons.
-Ireland (Dublin): The Irish will be very divided in the coming years, as they are going through a volatile political shift within. Mostly uncertain.
-Portugal (Lisbon): Mostly eurosceptic, but sadly insignificant on the political arena.
-Spanish government: Spain will have no political unity within the near future, and will be having their own Catalan problem to deal with.
-Norway (Oslo): The political divide in Norway is very close, and will likely be so in the soming years, thusly remaining undecided.
-Denmark (Coppenhagen): Much like Norway, Denmark is an eurosceptic country, but also very liberal. Even though their geopolitics will force them to pick a side, I doubt they will.
-Iceland (Reykyavik): Will not be of any significance.
-Belarus (Minsk): Under the boot of Russia, there is not much Minsk can do with regards to the Civil War.
-Ukraine (Kiev): They have their own problems at the moment.
-Italy (Rome): The internal instability of Italy, even that of the individual states, makes it impossible to predict where they will stand. Will have to wait for next election.
-San Marino: Grabs popcorn.
-Liechtenstein (Vaduz): Will not be of any significance.
-Holy See: Deus Vult maybe, but unlikely.
-Moldova (Cisinau): Will not be of any significance.
-Romania (Bucharest): Internal instability will render them unable to affect the Civil War significantly.
-Bosnia (Sarajevo): Internal instability will render them unable to affect the Civil War significantly.
-Serbia (Belgrad): Internal instability will render them unable to affect the Civil War significantly.
-Montenegro (Podgorica): Will not be of any significance.
-Albania (Tirane): Will not be of any significance.
-Greece (Athens): Internal instability will render them unable to affect the Civil War significantly.
-Cyprus: Internal instability will render them unable to affect the Civil War significantly.

 

 

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