Pensions and the economic future

[crops]

I've quit my workplace pension scheme, im not sure if its the wise thing to do and the opinions of normys dont mean alot to me.

Im 30 years old and in the uk , i think its a recent thing when your taken on with a new company your automatically enrolled in a pension scheme where the company contributes a certain fraction of what you contribute , half or something liie that. The money cant be accessed until retirement. Im pessimistic about the economic future of my country , i have no idea what the coming collapse / downturn will look like or what that money will likely be worth in 40 years time , or wether my islamic overlords will allow me to have it.

My idea is cancel that save some in cash and invest in gold and cryptos instead . I remember Cernovich saying once your an idiot if your not saving atleast 10% of each paypacket.

what are you lot doing? am i stupid?

 

 

[barn]

Hi @crops

Welcome back (~1 year) to the forum!

This is going to sound strange and maybe a bit 'weaponized' (for normies), though it's a layman's query/assessment :

Is it truthful to ascertain that you have done ZERO research into what the consequences of choosing either would be?

Barnsley

Edited May 15, 2018 by barn
specific

[RichardY]

1 hour ago, crops said:

what are you lot doing? am i stupid?

Going insane, possibly crazy. Not a pot to p*ss in.

Massive taxes on pensions anyway, and the money gets pressganged into "safe assets". Providing you have a decent pot anyway. Land is fu*king expensive 150,000GBP for an acre with a rundown barn conversion approved, near where my parents live. Property is like over 5 times more expensive than it was 20 years a go.

I guess if you wanted to make some money, get to know the councils, scumbags. Property developers and weapons on the conservative side. Unions and social housing on the other.  Be a slumlandlord, even if you get fined, the fine is less then what you could make. With all the thermal imaging cameras why not throw people out onto, the street enforce the law, in the major cities.

BITCOIN!!! - I don't trust it though. Prefer chunks of metal or fruit.  

Though in terms of risk adverse activities what can you do?

[crops]

18 hours ago, barn said:

Hi @crops

Welcome back (~1 year) to the forum!

This is going to sound strange and maybe a bit 'weaponized' (for normies), though it's a layman's query/assessment :

Is it truthful to ascertain that you have done ZERO research into what the consequences of choosing either would be?

Barnsley

hello Barn.

very little , i tried a google search on the pension schemes and first thing i saw was a guy off of dragons den (tv program) , talking about how great the schemes are , a spokesman for the normies. This is my query efforts.

[crops]

19 hours ago, RichardY said:

Going insane, possibly crazy. Not a pot to p*ss in.

Massive taxes on pensions anyway, and the money gets pressganged into "safe assets". Providing you have a decent pot anyway. Land is fu*king expensive 150,000GBP for an acre with a rundown barn conversion approved, near where my parents live. Property is like over 5 times more expensive than it was 20 years a go.

I guess if you wanted to make some money, get to know the councils, scumbags. Property developers and weapons on the conservative side. Unions and social housing on the other.  Be a slumlandlord, even if you get fined, the fine is less then what you could make. With all the thermal imaging cameras why not throw people out onto, the street enforce the law, in the major cities.

BITCOIN!!! - I don't trust it though. Prefer chunks of metal or fruit.  

Though in terms of risk adverse activities what can you do?

I'd feel more secure with some land and heavy prepping than i would with a promise of a pension in 40 years.

what i took from your post is cryptos and metals. 

 

[barn]

44 minutes ago, crops said:

hello Barn.

very little , i tried a google search on the pension schemes and first thing i saw was a guy off of dragons den (tv program) , talking about how great the schemes are , a spokesman for the normies. This is my query efforts.

For a second it didn't click what show you were referring to... haha. I (personally) would be highly skeptical regarding anything that's on TV, 'even the questions'.

Is there any chance you could ask someone (who you know) at least about the pension route? ('skin in the game' and all that... )

As of the crypto, there's quite a few threads, videos on the board/channel (if you understood what the main properties were, that'd be a good start i.e. - What is & why crypto isn't a 'Fiat currency').

Maybe if you had specific (educated) questions, until then I'm hesitant to go any deeper. (it's a touchy subject to give advice on, I think)

Barnsley

p.s. (I'm not an economist or anyone who is greatly knowledgeable about money, trading, gov. regulations)

[RichardY]

20 hours ago, crops said:

I'd feel more secure with some land and heavy prepping than i would with a promise of a pension in 40 years.

what i took from your post is cryptos and metals. 

 

Maybe a good specualtion might be in having another passport if you can. Some flexibility. As I said I don't trust crypto, but plenty of people do (Stefan) and don't (PeterSchiff). There's something called the "crack up boom" in Austrian economics where cash goes into physical assets, the only thing would be later liquidating those assets. I think many people in the Uk don't trust the pension system. Most of my family are/were saver types, though the pensions don't payout what they use to and even if they did, what's the point with taxes.

Flexibilty is important. Keep your options open, as Trump says in his book.

[smarterthanone]

I liquidated my 401k because it was worthless and bought real investments, like rental property and businesses. Why invest in crypto? It doesn't make you income.

Would you rather have $5,000,000 in gold in a vault collecting dust

OR

$5,000,000 in income producing investments paying you $750,000 per year in income?

[Boss]

Well, I am not an expert in pensions, but I would have figured out the annual return for it. Like I think with its tax relief its around a 5% yearly return. 

Now, if you can take the money out and get the same or better return, then I think it's better to do so, Having easy liquidity is always a plus. However, you also want to factor in time. Like I think a pension doesnt take much time, but other investments may take a lot of time. So you want to calculate the hours spent to make sure you also account for that.

You can for sure speculate on the economy, I certainly do which is why I have insurance with silver, gold, crypto, and lead. But these are not investments imo, its more like insurance. (tho crypto is more speculation and it obviously brought in crazy returns over the years but tanked recently)

Anyways, investing for me is a full-time job. Its not easy. It sucks people rob us every year which makes it harder, and im talking about inflation because t@xation is not enough for these statists.

You probably want to talk to a financial advisor tho or read financial books if you want to get more situated.

Also, most people don't even think about this stuff at all. So you are way ahead of the curve  

[crops]

On 5/16/2018 at 5:46 PM, barn said:

 

Is there any chance you could ask someone (who you know) at least about the pension route? ('skin in the game' and all that... )

As of the crypto, there's quite a few threads, videos on the board/channel (if you understood what the main properties were, that'd be a good start i.e. - What is & why crypto isn't a 'Fiat currency').

Maybe if you had specific (educated) questions, until then I'm hesitant to go any deeper. (it's a touchy subject to give advice on, I think)

Barnsley

p.s. (I'm not an economist or anyone who is greatly knowledgeable about money, trading, gov. regulations)

I have some small cryptos and ICO investments allready that ill leave in the hope one day they will rocket to the moon , i understand abit about inflation , fiat currency etc. Its more of what to expect in the future 'crash' that people in these circles often speak off , ill boil down and simplify my concern in a seperate response. As i said , i consider the people that surround me to be the normies , i wouldnt value their advice with regards to the economic future.

On 5/17/2018 at 6:30 PM, smarterthanone said:

I liquidated my 401k because it was worthless and bought real investments, like rental property and businesses. Why invest in crypto? It doesn't make you income.

Would you rather have $5,000,000 in gold in a vault collecting dust

OR

$5,000,000 in income producing investments paying you $750,000 per year in income?

Maybe when/if i have enough money i can make bigger plans.

On 5/18/2018 at 1:43 AM, Boss said:

Well, I am not an expert in pensions, but I would have figured out the annual return for it. Like I think with its tax relief its around a 5% yearly return. 

Now, if you can take the money out and get the same or better return, then I think it's better to do so, Having easy liquidity is always a plus. However, you also want to factor in time. Like I think a pension doesnt take much time, but other investments may take a lot of time. So you want to calculate the hours spent to make sure you also account for that.

You can for sure speculate on the economy, I certainly do which is why I have insurance with silver, gold, crypto, and lead. But these are not investments imo, its more like insurance. (tho crypto is more speculation and it obviously brought in crazy returns over the years but tanked recently)

Anyways, investing for me is a full-time job. Its not easy. It sucks people rob us every year which makes it harder, and im talking about inflation because t@xation is not enough for these statists.

You probably want to talk to a financial advisor tho or read financial books if you want to get more situated.

Also, most people don't even think about this stuff at all. So you are way ahead of the curve  

Do you physically hold your metals or have them stored in a far far away vault? I dont have alot of money to stress about , just want to start funneling bits in the right directions where it can atleast hopefully retain its value.

[crops]

On 5/17/2018 at 1:31 PM, RichardY said:

Maybe a good specualtion might be in having another passport if you can. Some flexibility. As I said I don't trust crypto, but plenty of people do (Stefan) and don't (PeterSchiff). There's something called the "crack up boom" in Austrian economics where cash goes into physical assets, the only thing would be later liquidating those assets. I think many people in the Uk don't trust the pension system. Most of my family are/were saver types, though the pensions don't payout what they use to and even if they did, what's the point with taxes.

Flexibilty is important. Keep your options open, as Trump says in his book.

what do you mean another passport, dual citizenship. I like the feeling of being minimal and flexible , im pessermistic about the future , economically and socially. I want a plan b exit strategy.

[crops]

Im going to boil down my questions and concerns,

What do people expect 'the crash' will look like , just how bad is it going to be? People and commentators in these circles are certain its coming , its just a matter of when. 'That which mathmatically cant continue , wont continue' . Stefan talked about preparing to 'harden our hearts' because theres going to be alot of people that need resources that might come knocking at your door. Are we expecting to be queing up for £100,000 loaf of bread scenario or something like the crash of 2008 (which i as an 18 year old wouldnt have even noticed if it weren't for the news talking about it).

[Kohlrak]

2 minutes ago, crops said:

Im going to boil down my questions and concerns,

What do people expect 'the crash' will look like , just how bad is it going to be? People and commentators in these circles are certain its coming , its just a matter of when. 'That which mathmatically cant continue , wont continue' . Stefan talked about preparing to 'harden our hearts' because theres going to be alot of people that need resources that might come knocking at your door. Are we expecting to be queing up for £100,000 loaf of bread scenario or something like the crash of 2008 (which i as an 18 year old wouldnt have even noticed if it weren't for the news talking about it).

 

I'm no economist, but i'm thinking something like, say, take your debt, divide by GDP, multiply the price of (almost) everything by the resulting number. Now, take into consideration that jobs will fall apart, since, although spending doesn't boost the economy like everyone likes to say it does, neither does everyone being too poor to buy anything. Basically, you'll have all that debt and everyone having defaulted on their share, everyone will run around trying to "regain" those lost resources. All those pensions, for example, old people want their retirement, so the price of everything they have is going to shoot through the roof, even if the value of what they have doesn't shoot through the roof with it, 'cause they don't want to let go what little they have without getting their retirement plans back. And that's just retirement. Welfare bums, single mothers, bond holders, stock holders, etc. Everyone's going to chomp down, and everything will be a bubble similar to the housing bubble, until governments and/or regular people learn to "let up" and "accept our punishment" and learn that we need to take the loss and pay the debt we've collected when we borrowed against our future.

[barn]

2 hours ago, crops said:

I have some small cryptos and ICO investments allready that ill leave in the hope one day they will rocket to the moon , i understand abit about inflation , fiat currency etc. Its more of what to expect in the future 'crash' that people in these circles often speak off , ill boil down and simplify my concern in a seperate response. As i said , i consider the people that surround me to be the normies , i wouldnt value their advice with regards to the economic future. 

I see.

In that case, I would suggest you invested in yourself first. More important than money is your skillset and integration into a support group. Having friends is a good thing. Think about something that you have already some pre-disposition doing for. (Apart from familiarising yourself with basic survival skills, you don't need to be an expert if it isn't what you are into)

Not being completely locked up in a big city and having the option to leave from highly populated areas makes sense too.

Best case scenario, that which has been postponed to fail gets delayed by some more (to 'bite' back even harder) and I (personally) wouldn't take anyone's predictive capability as a golden standard. Not even mine, here. (except for principles that which you should evaluate, adapt, enact for your own good)

Be your true-self, have real-time relationships,

Barnsley

Edited May 19, 2018 by barn
Good that you ask, stay curious

[Boss]

8 hours ago, crops said:

Do you physically hold your metals or have them stored in a far far away vault? I dont have alot of money to stress about , just want to start funneling bits in the right directions where it can atleast hopefully retain its value.

4

I do hold some of my metals, I prefer them as combibars. Silver is better as its more divisible imo but having a little gold is good too. Combibars seem great for trade or barter in the case of an economic collapse

Anyways, if you are just starting out I would start small. In the starting stages it's more about learning imo

Top hedge fund managers like Ray Dalio recommends maybe 5-10% of your portfolio in the insurance side of things like Silver/Gold. I personally consider crypto in that category too tho its way more speculative and recently bitcoin / other cryptos lost over 50% of its value. So I would be cautious with crypto if you're trying to retain value. 

[ACStudio]

On 5/15/2018 at 12:57 PM, crops said:

what are you lot doing? am i stupid?

Once you've ratholed enough supplies and metals to survive but not become a resource for the county, once you've learned how to run a trot line and skin a deer, once you've made friends with your neighbors Bryce and Kelsey who own a diesel generator, you are left with the possibility that one day you may be old and society may still be intact.  Real estate, metals, Bitcoin, etc, are all good ideas but none are without risk any more than the stock market.  They all can be lost one way or another.  However in the stock market there is actually an efficiently traded market for the associated risk and fear.  

I wouldn't use a 401 or pension fund or whatever unless it was being matched by at least 25%.  And even then I would seek to have it go into a self directed account.  Your assertion that these things are a scam is absolutely correct.  The scam is in that they claim they can add Alpha through their management while there is absolutely no data or evidence to suggest that they can with any predictability beyond what you would expect on a random bell curve of success and failure.  

Managing your own retirement account is far easier than the financial industry would like you to know.  In the US the financial industry is something like 7-10% of the GDP depending on who you ask.  They are strip mining everyone's retirement in ways you cannot even imagine and are doing nothing to add value.  

With the technology and fees available to the retail customer today there is no reason not to do it yourself.  Forget about financial advisers, money managers, mutual funds etc.  they don't know anything more than you do.  And by doing it yourself not only can you outperform anything they can do you will learn lessons that will change your life forever.

ps....To answer your questions more directly...no you are not stupid.  And what am I doing?  I have been self employed since '96.  I manage my own money.  I didn't start investing in the stock market until 2013.  Since then I have learned more about money, risk reward and how the world really works than I ever thought there was to know.  I trade mostly options and some stocks.  But I am always selling option premium to reduce cost basis or to simply collect on premium decay.  It is quantitative, strategic and predictable.  Learning how to reduce cost basis with option decay is no magic secret.  The markets are priced efficiently and I always know exactly where my risk is and that risk is predictable and manageable.

 

 

 

[barn]

Hi @ACStudio

What an awesome intro!

I have been enjoying reading your contributions for their content and the references(!!!), clarity. You make me want to learn more about the topics mentioned (not just in this thread).

I'm curious as to what your recommendation(s) would be on:

What skill should a layman focus on first, in the pursuit of learning(doing also) to be self-sufficient economically?

as in: not looking for shortcuts but instead would appreciate hearing about your experience for having good foundations (I guess it'll require time and consistency)

In the sea of available information, what springs to your mind regarding 'digestible' sources of knowledge? (I like for example how you usually explain your ideas, make arguments, provide references, very transparent, no bs, casual... so on)

 

Thank you!

[ACStudio]

52 minutes ago, barn said:

I have been enjoying reading your contributions for their content and the references(!!!), clarity. You make me want to learn more about the topics mentioned (not just in this thread).

Excellent,  I believe the subject would be worth a thread on its own or multiples where needed.  Feel free to start a new one with specific topics and I'll jump in.  I would but I have no way of knowing where everyone else is at.  I've spent a considerable amount of time helping people where I could on trading forums but their questions are usually very specific.

58 minutes ago, barn said:

What skill should a layman focus on first, in the pursuit of learning(doing also) to be self-sufficient economically?

Probably the most important skill would be to learn to forget and/or not care.  Forget everything you have probably been taught about finance...it's probably wrong or outdated, or both.  I've had discussions with advisers fresh out of their series 7 exam who within 30 minutes of me showing them how real investors trade are questioning their life choices.  Learn to not care what the monkeys are chattering about.  In fact, learn to not care so much that eventually you will be so confident that you will know how do the opposite of anything anybody is telling you and in the end have a higher probability of success.  Nothing makes me want to short something faster than if somebody tells me that some guru on CNBC said XYZ is going to the moon.  It's OK to have opinions about the market...but realize that the market does not care about your or anyone else's opinion but you will know how to give yourself a higher probability of success either way.

Some things to think about.  Every mainstream financial outlet is conflicted.  They are paid by advertisers...look at who their advertisers are.  They aren't going to tell you how real traders operate.  Because real traders do not care what somebody thinks.  They understand that known information is priced into efficiently traded markets very quickly and therefore any particular long or short position only has a 50% probability of success from the time it fills. 

I decided to put on some financial news show at the shop a few months ago.  Couple of guys were going back and forth about auto production in China.  I watched the whole segment and not once did they talk about how that was actionable to the investor.  I'm not sure they would even know how to trade it if they wanted to.  I watched that bald guy with all the bells and whistles yelling "buy this" and "sell that".  Hell, he got me fired up.  But still I know the success of his predictions are going to be wrapped around 50% just like every other stock picker.  Plot twist...I look at his pick and no way anybody with any sense would trade it...the bid/ask was .50 wide, volatility was at an all time low and daily volume had tumble weeds rolling through it.  

So yea, nobody knows anything about the future and what they do know is already priced in.

Anyway,  you've got most things sorted, knocked down the debt, bills are getting paid, Stefan's got you working on becoming a better person and questioning half the crap you've been fed as gospel since you were painting the walls with applesauce.  Maybe you've put back some gold/silver.  Got enough ammo to resupply the Nicaraguan revolution just in case Alex was right about the FEMA coming around.  Now what?  What about actually saving money for the possibility that you might end up on the front porch swing holding hands with the one you love watching the sun setting on your golden years.  Or maybe you did the whole peaceful parenting thing and those kids turned out alright enough you might want to help them along.  

Well you know you can't stash all that G money under the mattress because the Gov is gonna inflate that down to nothing.  And even though your slightly snobbish neighbor Chad seems to be doing alright with his fully funded 401 and works into the conversation, when he can, that it did a whopping 8% last year, you wonder.  You wonder because it doesn't sit right knowing these big banks are sitting on a huge amount of private wealth and you know they would run over their mother to snatch up a fiver off the floor.  And nowhere else in your life has it made sense to turn over something you worked so hard for to someone who gets paid whether they perform or not.  Nowhere else in your life have you settled for mediocrity so why would you with what could be the biggest investment of your life.  That financial adviser you met, Bryce something or other, seemed like a nice enough guy.  But you know he's conflicted, he gets told every morning which fund he needs to be pushing if he wants to win that Caribbean cruise that his wife's been after him about.  And even if he did have the best intentions the only vehicles available to him are what his firm offers so he may not even know about the soft dollar kick backs, embedded fees that are always passed on to the customer and any other matter of shenanigans that may be going on that are paid for with your money  

So whether you have any money or not you know that you would rather not do what everyone else is doing and you're ready to learn how finance really works.  How to manage you own money like the professionals that you never even hear about do.   Here's where you maybe start a new thread with some specific questions about where to start, I have some money I want to invest what now, I don't have any damn money but I want to learn, I think the market is crashing/flying how do I trade it, what's the probability of SPY being up/down 10% by Jan 1st, How do I short TSLA for the next 45 days using less than 500$ with a 75% probability of making money or anything else you can think of.  Even if you think I'm full of old socks and need to have my head examined, hit me with whatever.  Or continue with this thread if it seems to fit, just feel like I've raised the dead and highjacked a bit.

In the meantime...a digestible bit of info?  If you are going to understand finance you will need to build a vocabulary and you will need to understand options.  Options are the only grey area of finance and by there very nature allow for building predictable risk/reward.  But everything about fundamental and technical analysis is historic and therefore already priced in so don't worry so much about any of that, as everything you need to know a bout an asset is told by the current price.  Nothing wrong with having an understanding but it won't make you money.  Videos are good.  You tube has some decent stuff.  Don't trust anything with advertising or is trying to sell you something.    Keep the questions coming.

 

 

[mhholder2011]

10%? I've always diverted 20% to a savings account. I do have a retirement fund, but I did it independent of a company. You can also buy estate jewelry at the cost of the metals/stones in some places. I invested a bit in that. Jewelry gains value in both age and precious metals. I have always felt I could do a better job than a company simply due to me caring more. I haven't done crypto though and would like to know more about it.

[ACStudio]

14 minutes ago, mhholder2011 said:

10%? I've always diverted 20% to a savings account. I do have a retirement fund, but I did it independent of a company. You can also buy estate jewelry at the cost of the metals/stones in some places. I invested a bit in that. Jewelry gains value in both age and precious metals. I have always felt I could do a better job than a company simply due to me caring more. I haven't done crypto though and would like to know more about it.

Always good to have some liquid savings. Not great for the long term when you are trying grow wealth or even to beat inflation.  Metals/jewelry, sure why not.  But again as a wealth growing asset class not any easy vehicle unless you’re in the business.  The retirement fund is where I have strong opinions.  My first problem with any such fund is simply return vs how much risk you are actually taking.  Consider 2008.  The average mutual fund was down 50%.  Forget that the S/P was only down 40%.  My question would be how do you lose 50% when there is no way in hell you will ever gain 50% over that same time span.  Or even 30-40%.  It doesn’t happen.  Nowhere else in life would you take on the kind of risk that could generate a 40-50% loss without at least a chance of having that kind of gain.  They have convinced the public that these are “safe” methods of hedging against inflation, accumulating wealth and you are supposed to be excited if you do 8-10% one year.  But every 10-15 years the lambs are led to the slaughter and told, “you just have to ride it out, the market always comes back”.  All the while they still make the payments on their yacht slip in the Hamptons.  Learn to do it yourself, trust me you can make as good or better decisions than they can.  If you don’t mind me asking, what fund is it?  And not to judge your choice, I just am interested in what people are in as most of my discussions about finance are with self directed investors.

[mhholder2011]

1 hour ago, ACStudio said:

Learn to do it yourself, trust me you can make as good or better decisions than they can.  If you don’t mind me asking, what fund is it?  And not to judge your choice, I just am interested in what people are in as most of my discussions about finance are with self directed investors.

Firstly, you make a good point with the mutual fund. Personally, I feel my stock is pretty safe. I've invested in agricultural equipment and hospital debt. When choosing, I figure everyone eats, and everyone gets sick. The companies pay me dividends also.

[ACStudio]

10 hours ago, mhholder2011 said:

Personally, I feel my stock is pretty safe. I've invested in agricultural equipment and hospital debt.

`Sounds good, it's always more interesting to have actual names of funds or stocks but that's enough.  Say for instance your ag equip play is CAT (Caterpillar) and you want to hold for the long term here is how I look at it.  Stock is trading around 150 and change, Implied Volatility Rank coming in at 40%, has earnings toward the end of Oct.  I ignore the dividend at this point because I know every dividend stock has an ex-dividend date.  Which means there is a day where the stock's price is adjusted down by the amount of the dividend to shareholders of record.  Means that I will get credited the amount of the dividend but the value of the stock will drop by that price anyway so there is no arbitrage there.  Also the price of the stock price has already taken into account the value of dividend returns over some period of time.   Now lets say I own 100 shares in a self directed margin account that allows me to trade options.  At this point I know the Delta risk of owning 100 shares of stock is 100.  Means there is a one for one relationship between my position and the movement of the stock.  So if the stock goes up 1$ I make 1$ per share and if it goes down 1$ I lose 1$ per share.  My current probability of profit is 50%.  The only way I can increase my probability of profit or reduce my risk is to sell something against it.  So I look at the November options and see that the 30 Delta calls are trading for around 2.60.  The 30 Delta calls fall at the 160 strike price.  All this means is that the current implied volatility suggests that CAT only has around a 30% chance of being above 160 by Nov expiration.  So if I sell the Nov 160 call against my 100 shares of stock I will be credited around 2.60 per share to my account (see covered call).  This requires no additional capital but it reduces my cost basis of my purchase price by -2.60$. So if I bought the stock at 150 now I own it for 147.30.  Since I now own the shares for cheaper than what they are trading for my probability of profit is around 60% for the next 45 days.  I've reduced my risk, I've lowered my cost basis, now I just let it ride.  I can later choose to manage the position however I want, but lets say I do this 10 times in a year and manage to keep 1.50$ of it each time on average I can easily reduce my cost basis by 15$ a share or more.  At this point I no longer care what the stock is trading for...only that I can keep collecting that option premium against the capital it requires every month and generating at least 10% a year even if the stock goes sideways.  If it continues up I make more if it drops I don't lose as much or maybe still make a little.  This is how real investing works.  It's no magic get rich quick secret.  There is plenty of information out there about option premium selling and cost basis reduction.  You just don't hear much about it because it's not glamorous and or complicated.    

[barn]

Thank you @ACStudio

 

On 09/29/2018 at 4:29 AM, ACStudio said:

Excellent,  I believe the subject would be worth a thread on its own or multiples where needed.  Feel free to start a new one with specific topics and I'll jump in.  I would but I have no way of knowing where everyone else is at.  I've spent a considerable amount of time helping people where I could on trading forums but their questions are usually very specific. 

Much appreciated, I'm sure many of us could use a more down-to-earth, hands-on approach when learning about the subject of investment through the experiences of others with in-depth knowledge (comparably at least) .

On 09/29/2018 at 4:29 AM, ACStudio said:

On 09/29/2018 at 1:05 AM, barn said:

What skill should a layman focus on first, in the pursuit of learning(doing also) to be self-sufficient economically?

Probably the most important skill would be to learn to forget and/or not care.  Forget everything you have probably been taught about finance...it's probably wrong or outdated, or both.  I've had discussions with advisers fresh out of their series 7 exam who within 30 minutes of me showing them how real investors trade are questioning their life choices. 

As with many other subjects being taught in the same, far removed from the real-life applicability fashion...whereas school (in general, imo) ought to be about really just that... see, I think you're 'preaching' to the right crowd here. (I'm sure there're exceptions but they are few and far in-between)

I haven't been taught, nor taken finance related subjects... mainly sciences and always have / had a strong interest in communication in general too. Looking back, might not have been the wisest decision... then again, I also had a turbulent path prior with little to no support, so mostly self-taught. Red pilled a few years back too... bla-bla-bla.

On 09/29/2018 at 4:29 AM, ACStudio said:

In fact, learn to not care so much that eventually you will be so confident that you will know how do the opposite of anything anybody is telling you and in the end have a higher probability of success.  Nothing makes me want to short something faster than if somebody tells me that some guru on CNBC said XYZ is going to the moon.  It's OK to have opinions about the market...but realize that the market does not care about your or anyone else's opinion but you will know how to give yourself a higher probability of success either way. 

Hahaha... Yeah, overconfidence is a common mark of lacking 'depth'.

Opposite to:

"I like money... "

Instead :

I like risk assessment and calculated risk, don't mind (kinda do but I know it's necessary to learning) falling flat on my face when I err, if it's unforeseeable. Although my aim (as with most things) is to not repeat the same mistake twice.

On 09/29/2018 at 4:29 AM, ACStudio said:

Some things to think about.  Every mainstream financial outlet is conflicted.  They are paid by advertisers...look at who their advertisers are.  They aren't going to tell you how real traders operate.  Because real traders do not care what somebody thinks.  They understand that known information is priced into efficiently traded markets very quickly and therefore any particular long or short position only has a 50% probability of success from the time it fills.  

This sounds very much (to me at least) as recognising and accurately assigning incentives to the source of information. (or at least thinking about it carefully, ahead of making any assessment on the value of the information being offered)

Plus the fact that advertisers don't or hardly ever would bite the hand that feeds them.

While I was involved in sales(minor, tho international) , I realised there's also usually a group that gets earmarked as 'can be sacrificed' for when things go into red. So even if insider information is available, there'd be layers of available 'truths' depending on how essential your contribution was to the source. It's fine, nothing wrong with that(I guess)... unless you're willingly blind to the existence of such (common) practices. I learned the hard way first... lost an investment. Later, being wised up, at least recovered most of my losses (as in: initial investment) with an added bonus in 'Xp points' and slightly burnt pride. Then I got out, realising back then that I wasn't suited for the ' big boys' ' game just yet.

On 09/29/2018 at 4:29 AM, ACStudio said:

I decided to put on some financial news show at the shop a few months ago.  Couple of guys were going back and forth about auto production in China.  I watched the whole segment and not once did they talk about how that was actionable to the investor.  I'm not sure they would even know how to trade it if they wanted to.  I watched that bald guy with all the bells and whistles yelling "buy this" and "sell that".  Hell, he got me fired up.  But still I know the success of his predictions are going to be wrapped around 50% just like every other stock picker.  Plot twist...I look at his pick and no way anybody with any sense would trade it...the bid/ask was .50 wide, volatility was at an all time low and daily volume had tumble weeds rolling through it.  

This sounds like a(n existing) sales-pitch for the Saudis capturing asteroids, mining them for resources, making a fortune in the process and becoming the first space-colony building nation. Not to mention, avoiding bust due to the oil sooner or later being phased out is always an attractive option if you are dependent on it. On paper, it looks good, numbers checking out and everything is looking up for investors...'on paper' that is.

On 09/29/2018 at 4:29 AM, ACStudio said:

So yea, nobody knows anything about the future and what they do know is already priced in. 

Word. (because if they knew they wouldn't / why would they share it with...)

On 09/29/2018 at 4:29 AM, ACStudio said:

knocked down the debt, bills are getting paid, Stefan's got you working on becoming a better person and questioning half the crap you've been fed as gospel since you were painting the walls with applesauce.  Maybe you've put back some gold/silver.  Got enough ammo to resupply the Nicaraguan revolution just in case Alex was right about the FEMA coming around.  Now what?  What about actually saving money for the possibility that you might end up on the front porch swing holding hands with the one you love watching the sun setting on your golden years.  Or maybe you did the whole peaceful parenting thing and those kids turned out alright enough you might want to help them along.   

Well you know you can't stash all that G money under the mattress because the Gov is gonna inflate that down to nothing.  And even though your slightly snobbish neighbor Chad seems to be doing alright with his fully funded 401 and works into the conversation, when he can, that it did a whopping 8% last year, you wonder.  You wonder because it doesn't sit right knowing these big banks are sitting on a huge amount of private wealth and you know they would run over their mother to snatch up a fiver off the floor.  And nowhere else in your life has it made sense to turn over something you worked so hard for to someone who gets paid whether they perform or not.  Nowhere else in your life have you settled for mediocrity so why would you with what could be the biggest investment of your life.  That financial adviser you met, Bryce something or other, seemed like a nice enough guy.  But you know he's conflicted, he gets told every morning which fund he needs to be pushing if he wants to win that Caribbean cruise that his wife's been after him about.  And even if he did have the best intentions the only vehicles available to him are what his firm offers so he may not even know about the soft dollar kick backs, embedded fees that are always passed on to the customer and any other matter of shenanigans that may be going on that are paid for with your money  

So whether you have any money or not you know that you would rather not do what everyone else is doing and you're ready to learn how finance really works.  How to manage you own money like the professionals that you never even hear about do.   Here's where you maybe start a new thread with some specific questions about where to start, I have some money I want to invest what now, I don't have any damn money but I want to learn, I think the market is crashing/flying how do I trade it, what's the probability of SPY being up/down 10% by Jan 1st, How do I short TSLA for the next 45 days using less than 500$ with a 75% probability of making money or anything else you can think of.  Even if you think I'm full of old socks and need to have my head examined, hit me with whatever.  Or continue with this thread if it seems to fit, just feel like I've raised the dead and highjacked a bit. 

Nice one, enjoyed this part a lot. You definitely have a way with words, I'd imagine you probably make decent 'enticements' too...with good arguments supporting your proposal too, I suppose.

You're right.

It's probably my own 'paradox of choice'. Probably I need to narrow down my options first, by that I mean maybe going deductive and whipping out a whole list, one by one going ; 'can't do that', 'no, it's not an option', 'this could be'... so on.

How did you know what you wanted to learn, invest your time and energies into?

Because in my mind, that's what I mainly struggle with. Or it doesn't really matter as long as I'm trying different stuff? (crypto seems to me the most ' sure-unsure ' longterm safekeep but I don't think it's a viable vehicle for making a living on a monthly basis...however I really like the idea of 'smart contracts' with Ethereum) Yeah, this could be an idea for a future thread. (gonna look, at least to not duplicate any existing one/s)

On 09/29/2018 at 4:29 AM, ACStudio said:

In the meantime...a digestible bit of info?  If you are going to understand finance you will need to build a vocabulary and you will need to understand options. 

Wrote this actually down. (Sounds trivial but it isn't, good stuff!)

Again, you are right. I haven't developed an adequate vocabulary to understand the language used in investment apart from a mere superficial base, maybe the words but that's far from enough ... that's why I'd asked :

On 09/29/2018 at 1:05 AM, barn said:

In the sea of available information, what springs to your mind regarding 'digestible' sources of knowledge? (I like for example how you usually explain your ideas, make arguments, provide references, very transparent, no bs, casual... so on)

  Also, don't mind checking out opposing approaches if you have several in mind... not afraid to make mistakes or to look dumb asking 'low resolution' questions.

Thank you @ACStudio